Seahawks Insider

Seahawks finish No. 6 in sudden change situations

Post by Eric Williams on Jan. 5, 2013 at 9:06 am with 21 Comments »
January 5, 2013 9:06 am

Sunday’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins will bring together two of the best teams in the NFL in forcing turnovers and turning them into scores.

The Seahawks finished No. 6 in the league in sudden change situations this season, while the Redskins finished at No. 3 in the NFL.

Basically, sudden change situations are similar to points off turnovers in basketball — how defenses respond when their offense turns the ball over, and can an offense take advantage of turnovers created by a defense.

Both Seattle and Washington have done a better job creating turnovers in the second half of the season, which is why the Seahawks are riding a five-game winning streak and the Redskins have won seven straight.

In the last eight games, Washington has forced 15 turnovers while turning it over only five times (+10 turnover differential).

The Seahawks have forced 20 turnovers and only turned it over five times (+15 turnover differential) in the last eight games.

Check out the chart below

Sudden Change Situations

TeamTO ForcedTO LostNet Diff.Giveaway Pts.Takeaway Pts.Net. Diff.
New England4116254312481
Chicago4424207014575
Washington3114175111362
N.Y. Giants3521147913354
Atlanta3118135010353
Seattle311813479750
San Francisco25169459247
San Diego282627711033
Denver2425-17410531
Cincinnati302648611428
New Orleans262429512025
Baltimore25169648420
Houston291712587719
St. Louis2122-1546612
Carolina23221637310
Jacksonville2326-367758
Minnesota2223-164706
Arizona3334-19897-1
Cleveland292637774-3
Indianapolis1527-126458-6
Tampa Bay2623311199-12
N.Y. Jets 2337-149276-16
Green Bay231677453-21
Tennessee2428-49571-24
Oakland1926-79160-31
Miami1626-108755-32
Dallas1629-139955-44
Pittsburgh2030-1011056-54
Detroit1733-1611434-80
Buffalo2134-1312633-93
Philadelphia1337-2413640-96
Kansas City1337-2412322-101

Categories:
Statistics, Stats, etc.
Leave a comment Comments → 21
  1. GeorgiaHawk says:

    Good stats Eric.
    That’s why I think turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game.
    We just can’t let them get multiple turnovers like they did last week against the Cowboys.

  2. Dukeshire says:

    I’m not the biggest stat guy, but I really like this particular one, Eric. Since you’ve been posting these over the past couple seasons, it’s proved to be fairly good indicator of successful teams.

  3. bbnate420 says:

    Turnovers are one stat NO one can ignore IMO. Teams that are +2 in TOs in a game usually win. It may be the great equalizer, not that I think the Hawks are head and shoulders above the Skins.

  4. bbnate420 says:

    Stats always need analysis. That said, they provide a lot of info if you know how to read/use them.

  5. chuck_easton says:

    Statistics are great. They can show a lot. But always keep in mind the famous saying.

    “There are three types of lies. Lies. Damn lies. And Statictics.

  6. montanamike2 says:

    Good one Chuck, that’s some words of wisdom.
    I can’t believe Ponder choked and Minnessota mailed it in. I won’t even
    watch, what a dissapointment. Now what could GB possibly bitch about?

  7. Dukeshire says:

    Well, Ponder was inactive. Joe Webb though didn’t so much choke as he’s just simply awful.

  8. Tracking turn-overs is a misleading stat. What is the difference between a TO and a punt? There is no difference – both of those result in loss of possession for one team and a new possession for the other. The single best stat to correlate with a W is points-per-possession. That stat does not distinguish between losing possession from a TO, or from a punt. In both cases you have not capitalized on a scoring opportunity, which is all that really matters.

    But I confess to being a wonk about stats.

  9. raymaines says:

    I cheered for the Vikings as hard as I could but it didn’t do a lick of good. No home game in this years play offs for the Seahawks.

  10. Dukeshire says:

    Pilot – In a vacuum, there may be no difference. But the game is played within context, and with that in mind one has to consider field position, among other things, as a very significant difference between a punt and a turnover.

  11. banosser says:

    While I will never claim to be an expert, I’ve watched the game for over 40 years.. The big difference between a turnover and a punt is the huge psychological lift it gives the team with the takeaway… and while a punt generally results in about 35 yrd change in field position, a turnover obviously may not…

    not losing the turnover battle will be crucial

  12. Dukeshire says:

    Speaking of stats, for those, like Merle Hodge, who feel Seattle will struggle against Washington because they run the ball so well: Seattle has played 5 of the top 10 teams in the league in rushing (Seattle’s 3rd) and are 5-0 against them. Tomorrow at this time it will be 6-0.

  13. Dukeshire says:

    I bet coach Gus is in a good mood tonight. His N. Dakota St Bison’s won the FCS Championship again. Back to back. Congrats…

  14. montanamike2 says:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/redskins/2013/01/06/dr-james-andrews-disputes-coach-mike-shanahans-version-of-washington-redskins-quarterback-robert-griffin-iii-knee-injury/1811689/
    I don’t do links very well but this article states that Shanahan might ruin RG3, if he were my franchise qb then i’d shut him down for the year. We might ruin him today! Yes it’s today finally..

  15. SandpointHawk says:

    Seems like Mike Shanahan is a bit old school when it come to injured players.

  16. DFloydd says:

    Hey everyone. I have a question as reading this blog over the years I have learned ALOT about football from each and everyone of you and I just would like any of your takes (if you are so inclined) on the argument I’ve been having with a close friend. here it is: He seems to think that Wagner and Wright are not fit for MLB on passing plays and attributes it to the fact they can’t cover receivers over the middle which is why we’ve seen teams more than once march down the field on us (Kolb being the one situation early in the season, comes off the bench and burns us all the way down the field) So my friend says #54 (Wagner, i had to laugh because he doesn’t even know his name). So after that long explanation is it just a matter of in experience and by next year with his speed and intelligence Wagner will get better in pass coverage? I get so frustrated watchin teams beat us on 3rd down with a throw to a TE or slot recevier over the middle time and time again. Sure it is a “bend but don’t break” defense but I defended Wright and Wagner saying just give them time. Thoughts? I am in no way an X’s and O’s fan but the more i read and learn from you fine folks the better fan I’ve become. HEck, I didn’t know what a Will, Mike and Sam were last year. I never played football beyond 8th grade. I was too small. 5’11″ but weighed about 119lbs. Got hit by a big logger;’s kid in Shelton ona punt return where i prayed for the ball not to come my way and what does the kicker do? boots it right to me. all I saw was daylight to the end zone and failed to see the 6’3″ 225 lb 8th grader cutting across the field to knock me about 25 feet our of bounds. Broke my helmet and hit the ground so hard it broke my hip pads. Suffice to say my playing days ended then. But it has never wavered my passion of the game. So just a funny story to start what will be a great playoff game today and I have faith the Seahawks will find a way to win.

    You dont know him but a very close friend and coworker of mine died unexpectedly on Xmas eve while shopping for his daughter. This was the day after the 49ers game that he got to attend and said it was the happiest day of his life. So I am glad he went out on a high note. The funeral was yesterday and it was definitely a Seahawk themed service. Seahawks stuff everywhere. His 12th man jersey and they even had a flower arrangement shaped in the Seahawks logo. HE would have loved it. I know he will be watching the game and from me to him I am hoping for a Seahawks playoff win. He would have loved nothing more. Sorry to end on a bummer note but whatever beverage you choose to enjoy this afternoon if you feel like it please raise a toast to my friend Jeff. The most hardcore Hawks fan I have ever met. (besides all of us blog crazies). Thanks to each of again for teaching me alot while i hover and read this blog everyday 10 times a day with my idiotic silly occasional comments.

    P.S. GO SEAHAWKS!!!!! (I am up way too early but the excitement for 1:30pm to get here has allowedme no sleep…..but I don’t care!)

    ROCK ON TNT Seahawks Bloggers!

  17. Dukeshire says:

    DFloydd – I’m sorry to hear about your friend. That’s a real shame, and during he holidays too…

    Regarding Wright and Wagner: I’ll agree to a point about Wright not being ideally suited physically for Mike. He’s so long levered (fancy scout talk for long arms and legs) he’s almost built like a DE. And while he has plenty of straight line speed, he’s not terribly quick which you’d like to see more of in the middle. Especially in zone coverage where LBs are going to have to change direction and drive on the receiver quickly. (Wright actually reminds me a bit physically of a young Brian Urlacher. But Urlacher played safety at New Mexico which helps him a ton in coverage in the NFL.)

    Wagner on the other hand, I totally disagree with your friend on. Wagner is not only fast but more than quick enough to react to an underneath receiver and drive downhill on him. The troubles I saw from him in zone, especially the first 3 months or so of the season, stem from him “getting lost”. That is, he is required to find his predetermined landmark (based on distance to go) at the snap and would often drop well beyond it, or not drop deep enough. So, if it were 3rd and 10, he ought to drop 11 and keep the receiver in front of him, while tackling him short of the marker. I would see him drop well beyond that with no chance to make the tackle short of the distance. I would also see him not drop far enough, allowing the receiver to get behind him, underneath the safeties, which puts him in a trail situation, which is a mismatch against any WR. He has gotten much, much better at finding his landmark and trusting what he reads.

    Something else to keep in mind: Offenses work all week game-planning against a defense’s tendencies, and how to create mismatches. In Seattle’s 3rd and passing defense, where they play an underneath zone, opportunities are there for an offense to matchup TEs on nickel corners and WRs on LBs. Trouble for a defense. I don’t particularly care for Seattle’s scheme here because there is so little margin for error when you are allowing yards to be gained, but short of a new set of downs. That said, as Irvin becomes more consistent in his pass rush, and (hopefully) pressure in general with the front 4 improves, we’ll see this concept become more effective. It’s sound in theory: not allowing big gains in situations where you ought to be getting off the field, but it hasn’t been terribly effective in practice. Yet (although it has gotten better.)

  18. Dukeshire says:

    Where is everyone? lol.

  19. montanamike2 says:

    Good explanation Duke. DFloydd i’ll toast to your friend Jeff and get my gang to do the same.

  20. GeorgiaHawk says:

    DFloydd- Sad about your friend. I recently lost my mother and it has really been difficult for me to cope at times.

    You are right about Wagner and his experience. It’s typical for rookie linebackers to struggle in pass coverage. Kuechly is going through the same learning curve at Carolina. The coaches put alot on Wagners plate for a rookie, (calling plays) and like Wilson on the offensive side, Wagner on the defensive side keeps getting better.

    BTW- Do you live in Shelton? I used to own some land there. I wished I would have kept it.

  21. DFloydd says:

    @GeorgiaHawk. Nah, I didn’t grow up in Shelton. I live in Olympia and grew up in Yelm. Those SHelton kids were huge and tough when I was young. :)

    THanks for the kind words about my friend everyone!

    And shout out to Georgia & Duke. I will take your explanation on the MLB situation to my friend and basically exclaim “I Win!!” hahaha.

    Have a great day watching the games everyone!

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