Seahawks Insider

Morning links: Playoff picture

Post by Eric Williams on Nov. 19, 2012 at 8:42 am with 51 Comments »
November 19, 2012 8:42 am
Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch (24) rushes against the Minnesota Vikings in the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 4, 2012, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

Good morning folks. Thanks again to Dave Boling for manning the blog last week during my furlough.

The Seahawks will practice this afternoon at 2:45 p.m., and I’ll have a full report up soon after.

I thought we’d take a quick look at the playoff picture. With six games left, the Seahawks are still hanging on to final spot in the NFC Wild Card at 6-4. But Minnesota and Tampa Bay also sit at 6-4 overall, and New Orleans (5-5) and Dallas (5-5) are just a game back.

Seattle holds the tiebreaker over Minnesota because the Seahawks beat them a few weeks ago, and they hold the tiebreaker over the Bucs because they have a better record in the conference (4-4 to the Buccaneers’ 3-4).

Here’s a quick look at those four team’s schedules for the rest of the year.

Minnesota
Nov. 25 at Chicago
Dec. 2 at Green Bay
Dec. 9 Chicago
Dec. 16 at St. Louis
Dec. 23 at Houston
Dec. 30 Green Bay

Tampa Bay
Nov. 25 Atlanta
Dec. 2 at Denver
Dec. 9 Philadelphia
Dec. 16 at New Orleans
Dec. 23 St. Louis
Dec. 30 at Atlanta

New Orleans
Nov. 25 San Francisco
Nov. 29 at Atlanta
Dec. 9 at N.Y. Giants
Dec. 16 Tampa Bay
Dec. 23 at Dallas
Dec. 30 Carolina

Dallas
Nov. 22 Washington
Dec. 2 Philadelphia
Dec. 9 at Cincinnati
Dec. 16 at Pittsburgh
Dec. 23 New Orleans
Dec. 30 at Washington

Dave Boling of The News Tribune believes the Seahawks can do one better and win the NFC West for the second time in three seasons. Boling: “If the Seahawks can split on the road against Miami and Chicago, they would be up to seven wins and facing three remaining at home, and another on the road against Buffalo (4-6), which will also be on the road hosting the game in Toronto. If the Seahawks stay healthy and continue to improve on offense, 10 wins looks reasonable, with 11 not out of the question.”

Jim Moore of 710 ESPN Seattle agrees with Boling.

Dave Wyman of 710 ESPN Seattle says that Pete Carroll and John Schneider are the honey badgers of the NFL. Wyman: “In a copy-cat league where personnel decisions and play-calling never gets very far out of the box, Schneider and Carroll buck traditional, safe decision making and do what they believe in. If you have no other reason to root for the Seahawks, there’s a good place to start.”

As Ben Volin of the Palm Beach Post, who covers the Dolphins, points out – this is the farthest a team can travel and remain in the continental United States to play at another team’s home stadium.

Jim Trotter of Sports Illustrated takes a closer look at coaches differing philosophies on how to handle the coin flip. Trotter notes that Pete Carroll accepted the opening kickoff 16 of the 19 times the Seahawks won the toss the past two seasons. But this year Carroll has deferred all three times. Trotter: “Those in the ‘defer’ camp believe there’s a great advantage to waiting to receive the ball. For one, if you score to end the first half, you have a chance to build on it to start the third quarter. And if you struggled in the first half, you have halftime to make adjustments and apply them to start the second half.”

Chris Perkins of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel points out Russell Wilson’s struggles on the road.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic writes about Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt benching quarterback John Skelton in favor of rookie Ryan Lindley with his team up 13-0 in the second quarter. Even though Arizona forced six turnovers, the Cardinals still lost at Atlanta 23-19, and have now lost six straight.

Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com still has Seattle selecting Tennessee receiver Cordarrelle Patterson at No. 22 overall in his latest mock draft. Rang’s colleague, Dane Brugler, has the Seahawks selecting Alabama defensive tackle Jesse Williams.

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle previews the San Francisco-Chicago Monday Night matchup. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports that San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith (concussion) has been ruled out for Monday’s game, which means Colin Kaepernick will start in Smith’s place

Korean recording artist Psy will be performing “Gangnam Style” during halftime of Seattle’s game vs. Buffalo next month in Toronto. But really, it just provides an convenient excuse to post the video below.

Categories:
Morning links
Leave a comment Comments → 51
  1. I think if this Defense is as good as their reputation and stats say they are, the Seahawks win out, finish 12-4, win the NFC West and get a First Round Bye.

    10-6 may not be good enough to make the playoffs.

  2. surelyyoujest says:

    I think 4-2 over the last 6 would be realistic. 6-0 seems like a lot to ask of a young Team, but I’d certainly take it if it were to happen. I think we’d get in at 10-6, but there is no guarantee certainly.

  3. banosser says:

    According to ESPiN, in their Playoff-Conference Standings-Reason column: “Minnesota wins tie break over Seattle and Tampa Bay based on best win percentage in conference games.”

    So they have Minni in the 6th playoff spot… which obviously does not take into consideration head to head results??

    I’m not real worried tho as you have pointed out they have a killer schedule remaining: Chix2, GBx2, Hou..

  4. First tie-breaker is head to head and since we beat Minnesota we obviously win the tie-breaker. After that is conference record- pretty early to start going over senarios- reality is we keep winning we go to the play-offs. The wins over dallas-minnesota- green bay are huge if we can beat Chicago in a couple of weeks we will be golden.

  5. I think a three way tie leads to a different set of tie breakers. Back in 1990, the Hawks were in a three way tie for the last playoff spot and had beaten BOTH the other contenders head to head, but Pittsburgh was still chosen. (Another reason to hate the Steelers.)

    I’d like to keep the focus on winning the West. If Chicago beats SF tonight and we win out (…:) ), we win the division. But ultimately I like the Russell Wilson line: let’s just concentrate on going 1-0 each week.

    Go Hawks!

  6. Welcome back E…..

  7. I think pabs is right. 10-6 is not a record you want to trust to get you into the playoffs; just ask the Bucs of 2010. I also recall the 1986 season, when the Seahawks finished 10-6, maybe the hottest team in the NFL at the time after knocking off both Superbowl teams (including a hard fought win on the road against the Giants).

    This team overall got a bye at almost a perfect point in the season, and it isn’t too often that you’ll see that. I want 6-0. 5-1 is acceptable, but in order for the Seahawks to really control their own destiny and have a shot at home field advantage through most of the playoffs, they’re going to need that 12-4 record.

  8. Dukeshire says:

    The way the schedule falls, 10-6 ough to get them in. They hold the tie-breaker over Dallas as well.

    As for winning the division, SF has a very tough raod ahead of them, including tonight, so that is a real possibility, but it will be a struggle.

  9. If we want to get into the playoffs, tonights bears at 49ers game is as important as any of them will be. Go Bears!

  10. Except for the Bears game, the Seahawks schedule is fairly easy. For this team to be the team we all think they are, they have to be able to beat teams like the Dolphins and Bills on the road.

    SF does face a very difficult schedule down the stretch. I think they lose tonight with Smith out, lose at NO, lose at NE and lose at Seattle. That puts them at 9-5-1.

    3 way wild card tiebreakers require one team to have beaten the other 2 teams before falling down to conference record. The Seahawks will not play Tampa Bay this year so we don’t want them in the mix.

    Finally, I think we may get 1 or even 2 Seahawks games flexed into primetime (at Chicago and vs SF). Seahawks prime time games this year have been among the highest rated games of MNF and TNF packages this year.

  11. Make that 9-6-1 for SF if they lose all of those games. Looking at it as a non-fan, its probably realistic to think they win at least one of those games, which brings them to 10-5-1.

  12. “Except for the Bears game, the Seahawks schedule is fairly easy.”

    Can’t call the Niners game an easy one – – but if they want to win the division, it’s a game they need to win.

    We’ll see, I still think 10-6 is where we land, and that’s a very nice step forward for this team.

  13. Dukeshire says:

    Yes pdway, I too disagree with that. The SF game on the 23rd will be a battle.

  14. rramstad says:

    The CBS bracket is correct.

    http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

    skip down to Wild Card, Three or more clubs

    (Seattle, Tampa Bay, Minnesota)

    2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

    Given that Tampa and Seattle have both defeated Minnesota, that puts Minnesota at the bottom, and you go to the Wild Card, Two or more clubs section… first tiebreaker is head to head (not applicable) then

    2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

    As noted, we have a slightly better percentage right now in conference than Tampa does.

  15. Helenahawk says:

    I agree that 10 – 6 looks likely, as I play the numbers in my head. But my picks every week indicate I only guess right 75% of the time, and there is a lot of football to play.
    I think 10 – 6 is a great record, even if it doesn’t work to get in the playoffs this year. It finally breaks the chain of mediocrity and makes a great springboard for the following year. (And it might just be good enough for the playoffs this year.)

  16. They really should win every game but the Bears game by at least 10 points.

  17. The Conference Record tiebreaker does not work in Seattle’s favor. If they beat the Bills and Dolphins, that puts their conference record at a mediocre 6-6.

    The best case wildcard tiebreaker scenario is the Seahawks are tied with some combination of Minnesota, Dallas and Green Bay. Adding Tampa Bay or even Detroit to the mix kills it.

  18. Vancouver_Hawk68 says:

    Pabuwal, I cannot figure out your reasoning. The conference record is currently 4-4. Assuming the Hawks win their home games and lose in Chicago, the conference record would be 7-5. What do the AFC games have to do with that? Am I missing something (other than that there is no guarantee for an 8-0 home record)?

    Personally, I would like to see continued development on the road, starting in Miami and continuing in Chicago where it would be nice to be competitive. RW’s curve is pointing up in terms of road games as he clearly played very well in Detroit. If this goes as hoped for, the Hawks can win the division on December 23 by beating the 9ers.

  19. confused – why would the Bills and Dolphins have anything to do with our conference record?

    Anyway – I am hoping for a 5-1 finish and end at 11-5, should get us in and not have to worry about other teams – also give us a chance at the division title

  20. BTW – Eric, great idea for a post right after the bye week :)

  21. The whole conversation around tie breakers assumes the Seahawks finish 10-6, anything more and its inconsequential.

    In order to get to the 10-6 record, I was going with the assumption that the Seahawks beat the non-playoff caliber teams (Dolphins, Bills, Rams, Cardinals) and lose to the two playoff caliber teams (SF and Chicago).

    That puts the Conference Record at 6-6.

  22. After watching yesterdays games, seeing all the teams that are supposed to be lousy, Jets, Jags, Browns, take teams to overtime, it is hard to assume that the schedule will be easy for the Hawks. The parity in the league has never been more evident than this year. I think that 10-6 will not even guarantee the Hawks make the post season.

  23. Vancouver_Hawk68 says:

    Got it. Let’s hope for 11-5 then. I don’t like tie breakers that fiddle around with winning percentages etc.

  24. abqhwkfn says:

    Im with you rodman. There are no easy games. Every team in the NFL has talent. We’ve already lost to the rams and cardinals. I certainly would hate to have to tackle CJ Spiller.. and it is a loooong way to Miami. Nothing comes easy.

  25. Id be happy with 10-6, but only if Seattle beats the Niners. I want that game so bad…Id rather beat the Niners than go to the playoffs. Then again, if we make the playoffs, barring a 12-4 finish and a mini-collapse by the Niners, we would face them in the first round of the playoffs…I hate losing to the Niners like I used to hate losing to the Raiders…A Pox on Jim Harbaugh!

    It still pisses me off that Seattle lost games to the Rams, Cards, and Lions. Those games–especially the Lions and Rams games–were there for the taking. Lousy coaching decisions blew the Rams game, and a defensive meltdown ruined RW’s coming out party in the Lions game. BUT, we “beat” the Packers and the Pats in squeakers, so its almost even…Reminds me a lot of the Knox teams of the mid-to-late eighties, teams that would always choke away a couple games the should have won, only to beat a couple teams they never should have…at best they snuck into the playoffs, at worst they were a hairsbreadth from contention at 7-9…

    Except this team is far more talented than any team Seattle has fielded in recent memory, up there neck and neck with the 1984-1986 and 2005 teams. Our staff isnt there yet. Neither is the discipline–but I think its coming along.

    Minnesota isnt going to win three more games, period. The Bucs and Cowboys and GB are the competition for sure for a wildcard…

  26. Those first 8 games were also about breaking in a rookie QB and a new passing game – a rookie QB who climbs the learning curve as quickly as anyone. I’m actually surprised the team didn’t finish worse than 4-4 over the first 8 games given the importance of the passing game in today’s NFL.

  27. SeahawkFan12 says:

    For the record, I love the call to defer to the second half. If you score before halftime (or even if you have the ball until halftime) it is almost like creating a turnover. And you have the opportunity to implement adjustments and create momentum coming right out of the ocker room. I love it when Pete defers!

  28. Im sticking to my 11-5 preseason prediction

  29. If Wilson can play as well as he did in Detroit, I think they can beat @MIA and @CHI. Hopefully Cutler’s concussion lingers long enough.

    This being said, if SF loses tonight, against New Orleans, and against @SEA, then there is a very solid chance that Seattle not only wins the division, but, SF misses the playoffs due to NO beating them. I think NO finishes 10-6 or 11-5 this season, easily in contention for a wild card.

    Its a huge IF. IF Wilson has finally come around on the road, then the sky is the limit. The loss vs Detroit could really come back to bite the team in the ass, assuming they win enough games to be WC contenders.

  30. Vancouver_Hawk68 says:

    RADEoN, you are quite correct on that Detroit game. Very annoying. However, the three division losses on the road (endzone dropgate, fake field goal gate and dropsies and getting run over gate) are even more annoying as those games were so incredibly winnable. Even if we concede the GB game as a possible loss, we would be looking at first round bye at this point. Let’s hope that the road performance will improve (both sides of the ball) and that those annoying losses will disappear in the rear view mirror as part of a growth process.
    Go Hawks!!

  31. One game at a time. I’ll feel good if we can get a good result in Miami, as it means we won’t be any worse than the last two seasons.

    And then we can go up from there!

  32. I don’t think Miami will be able to score a touchdown that game, at least on offense. I’m worried about buffalo turning into a shootout and RW in on the lower end of his inconsistent play, and the team not being able to stack up offensively.

  33. Vancouver_Hawk68 says:

    Miami is under pressure. Their good start is evaporating and Tannehill is regressing. If the Hawks can control Bush and put the Shermanator on Hartline, Tannehill should be good for an interception or two. The Miami defense started hot and has cooled significantly. I think that they can be run on, but on a good day their pass rush is devastating.

    Buffalo will probably be out of it by the time the Hawks play them. The offense is feast or famine and their quarterback is the epitome of captain garbage time (a title shared with Matt Cassel). Their D-line looks scary on paper but sure underperformed so far. Also, Lynch should approach 200 yards against those guys.

    Those are imminently winnable games. Let’s be optimistic.
    Go Hawks!!

  34. “This being said, if SF loses tonight, against New Orleans, and against @SEA, then there is a very solid chance that Seattle not only wins the division, but, SF misses the playoffs due to NO beating them.”

    Wouldn’t that be sweet? let’s hope . . .

    Should be an ugly one tonight, no starting QB’s for either side. Hard to figure who wins it.

  35. GeorgiaHawk says:

    Eric- Any word on how the injured Seahawks are doing?

  36. Vancouver_Hawk68 says:

    The 49ers also play in New England. The Hawks will be able to determine their fate. Much better than in previous years. Every game has been competitive so far and I would say that the next six should be competitive as well. No more blow-outs.

    Go Hawks.

  37. bbnate420 says:

    The Bears are a very beatable team for the Hawks IMO if they 1) take care of the football and 2) get pressure on Chuckler. They really both pertain to the turnover battle, because Chuckler will inevitably start chucking the ball up for grabs if they consistently hit him in the mouth. Their D is good no doubt, but forcing turnovers is the prime reason they are so good. If you can eliminate that, they lose a large part of their winning formula. Earth-shaking insights I know.

    I’d almost rather face Cutler than Campbell. Maybe that’s stretching it, but I think Campbell is generally underrated. Not a great player by any stretch but solid.

  38. DanielleMND says:

    “Its a huge IF. IF Wilson has finally come around on the road, then the sky is the limit.”

    Wilson? Try the entire team.

  39. EastCoastFan51 says:

    its possible we start getting hot and really open up the offense. if thats the case winning the division is very possible. the 49ers are not going to beat new england in foxboro…cold weather game ya know…they need to lose tonight and we need to beat them at home and the division is ours. dreaming a bit but the 49ers are beatable for sure.

  40. DanielleMND, I’m trying to stay as calm as I can when I say this, so my levelheadedness isn’t skewed by your inane comments and absurd stupidity.

    You have no real football knowledge, as a matter of fact, you’re one of the least informed posters on this board. Everything you say is easily defeatable by even the lowest levels of common logic.

  41. raymaines says:

    SHF 12: Defer to the second half.

    I agree, and especially on the road. The home crowd is still in the restroom or buying beer when the second half starts and there isn’t a quieter / better time for a visiting team to be on offence.

  42. bbnate420 says:

    Yes, another pissing match. :-)

  43. bbnate420 says:

    She didn’t say anything personally insulting to you in that comment. She just disagreed with parts of your premise. If you were levelheaded, you wouldn’t have had to resort to personal attacks so quickly. If she’s so easily defeated with the lowest levels of “common” knowledge, why didn’t you do that?

  44. GeorgiaHawk says:

    RADEoN- Are you finally admitting that you are at the lowest level of common logit? Lol.

  45. MoSeahawk12 says:

    it’s easier to call names. Kinda his thing.

  46. MoSeahawk12 says:

    to be 14 again……no thanks

  47. hawkfaninoklahoma says:

    been gone most of week nice to see nothings changed.

    that said RADEoN,”profanity is the feeble attempt of a weak mind to express itself forcefully.” calling people stupid or an idiot just shows your complete lack of intelligence and utter lack of respect for others. that said feel free to keep it up i enjoy watching people make an ass of yourself.

  48. bbnate420 says:

    hawkfan, it was actually pretty quiet last week. I was busy, so I didn’t follow it super closely but that’s how it seemed. Except for the thread about the nerve of the NFL to give RW Offensive ROTW.

  49. MoSeahawk12 says:

    DanielleMND, you actually post very good football related comments unlike some. You also understand that football is a team sport and isn’t won or lost by one player. Some here have zero clue and only show up to cause some sort of reaction. They have missed most of the factual points put up by multiple posters. Keep posting your comments and thoughts. I’ll read them any day over the junior high clubs spittle.

  50. bbnate420, I actually think ROTW is a great honor for RW. The “I thought he was too short to play QB” post, is why I said what I said. He certainly deserved it, but acting like that makes it set in stone that he’s going to be a QB is a little presumptuous, no?

    MoSeahawk12, actually, she posts RW GOOD WHOLE TEAM BAD drivel.

    Football is absolutely a team sport, but one player can absolutely ruin it for the entire team, especially at the QB position.

    People fail to realize that “the best defense is a good offense”, is actually the truth. When your quarterback is going 3 and out constantly, on the road, it’s making it very hard on the TEAM to win. You can point the blame all around, just like everybody did when Hasselbeck struggled, but the fact is, Hasselbeck struggled.

    When Brady’s receivers drop passes, the team is able to make up for it. When Seattle’s receivers drop passes, they’re intercepted, or incomplete and causing a punting situation. The more of these that happen, the more the TOP sways, putting more of a burden on the defense, therefore statistically allowing more yards, points, 3rd down conversions, etc.

    When the offense struggles on the road, it makes it exponentially harder on the defense. When the head of the offense is struggling, the entire team struggles. I don’t see how that’s so hard for people to comprehend.

  51. MoSeahawk12 says:

    The Seahawks are not the Patriots and Wilson is No Brady. These three and outs you speak of were from about five games ago. The 3 and outs have dramatically been reduced. Detroit road game Wilson was very accurate and they punted maybe three times. Defense gave up 75% of 3rd downs, worst day of the season for them. Also gave up 28 points. Most on season as well. Wilson is in the top five over the past five games and has the highest QB rating at home in the entire NFL. Yes, one win on the road and he needs to play better. The team hasn’t been the same on the road. That needs to change this week against Miami. They need to score about 24 points and keep Miami under 10. A win is a win, but I think they need to win convincingly this week as The Bear game will be tough regardless of the crap that put out on the field last night. Rookie of the week means very little in regards to the overall team goals. Wilson doesn’t seem to caught up in it. More fun for the fans.

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