At certain points during the season I like to take a look at a stat that I believe is one of the most influential in the outcome of an NFL game — sudden change situations.
Basically, it’s similar to points off turnovers in basketball — how defenses respond when their offense turns the ball over, and can an offense take advantage of turnovers created by a defense.
The Seahawks currently are No. 19 in the league in this category. For some perspective, the Seahawks finished at No. 5 in the league in this category last year.
Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley noted this week that his team has struggled to win the turnover battle on the road this season. Seattle has a -3 turnover differential away from home.
The Seahawks face a team this weekend in Detroit that also is struggling to win the turnover battle. The Lions have a -5 turnover differential, and Detroit is No. 26 in sudden change situations this season.
While Detroit moved the ball well in the middle of the field against Chicago on Monday Night, the Lions turned the ball over four times inside the red zone.
“We put a premium on it this week,” Bradley said. “We really emphasized it. We do every week, but this week it’s so critical against such an explosive team to try to get the ball off of them. When you watch teams, they’re playing a lot of soft coverage on them. Real soft coverage and they’re hoping somewhere down the line they make a mistake.”
Check out the chart below.
Sudden Change Situations
| Team | TO Forced | TO Lost | Net Diff. | Giveaway Pts. | Takeaway Pts. | Net. Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 21 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 58 | 41 |
| Atlanta | 17 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 53 | 36 |
| N.Y. Jets | 12 | 12 | 0 | 20 | 55 | 35 |
| Washington | 16 | 9 | 7 | 20 | 52 | 32 |
| New England | 18 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 44 | 31 |
| Houston | 13 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 54 | 30 |
| N.Y. Giants | 18 | 9 | 9 | 34 | 60 | 26 |
| San Francisco | 11 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 38 | 22 |
| Baltimore | 13 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 47 | 16 |
| Arizona | 15 | 11 | 4 | 27 | 43 | 16 |
| Tampa Bay | 14 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 42 | 15 |
| San Diego | 13 | 14 | -1 | 44 | 55 | 11 |
| Cleveland | 15 | 13 | 2 | 35 | 40 | 5 |
| St. Louis | 9 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 23 | 3 |
| Denver | 10 | 13 | -3 | 37 | 37 | 0 |
| New Orleans | 8 | 8 | 0 | 31 | 30 | -1 |
| Carolina | 7 | 13 | -6 | 26 | 21 | -5 |
| Indianapolis | 3 | 12 | -9 | 23 | 17 | -6 |
| Seattle | 10 | 11 | -1 | 23 | 16 | -7 |
| Oakland | 7 | 9 | -2 | 30 | 23 | -7 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 14 | -4 | 27 | 20 | -7 |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 18 | -8 |
| Jacksonville | 8 | 8 | 0 | 30 | 22 | -8 |
| Green Bay | 9 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 20 | -11 |
| Detroit | 6 | 11 | -5 | 30 | 14 | -16 |
| Miami | 9 | 12 | -3 | 47 | 28 | -19 |
| Cincinnati | 9 | 15 | -6 | 56 | 33 | -23 |
| Philadelphia | 8 | 17 | -9 | 40 | 17 | -23 |
| Tennessee | 7 | 11 | -4 | 48 | 24 | -24 |
| Dallas | 6 | 13 | -7 | 48 | 10 | -38 |
| Buffalo | 11 | -17 | -6 | 75 | 17 | -58 |
| Kansas City | 6 | 21 | -15 | 74 | 16 | -58 |
I took these numbers, then figured out points per giveaway, and points per takeaway for each team.
The Seahawks average 2.09 points per giveaway, which is 7th in the NFL at limiting the damage.
The bad news? They average 1.60 points per takeaway, good for 31st in the NFL.
Indy is 4th in the NFL at points per giveaway (1.92), and 1st in points per takeaway (5.67). Interestingly, Chicago is 8th in points per giveaway, and just 19th in points per takeaway – they are forcing lots of turnovers, but aren’t necessarily doing a great job at taking advantage of them.
× Flag comment
Nice job Skrati. I would have guessed that the Hawks would have allowed a little less than 2.09 per giveaway but the 1.60 per takeaway doesn’t surprise me based on offensive production.
× Flag comment
“The bad news? They average 1.60 points per takeaway, good for 31st in the NFL.”
Not surprising. Case in point: In 3 takeaways (interception, fumble, interception) against the Cardinals and Cowboys in the first 2 games of the season, Seattle scored a whopping total of 3 points.
× Flag comment