Seahawks Insider

Take of the week: Flynn worth the risk

Post by Eric Williams on March 6, 2012 at 11:20 am with 80 Comments »
March 6, 2012 11:21 am
Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn (10) looks for a receiver during an NFL preseason football game against the Cleveland Browns Saturday, Aug. 13, 2011, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Editor’s note: This is a format where frequent contributors to the comments section of the Seahawks Insider blog are offered a forum to voice their opinion on a specific topic of choice involving the Seahawks. Submissions are read and edited beforehand.

This is the second of four pieces where Bob Kaupang offers his opinion on the quarterback options for the Seahawks.

By Bob Kaupang
(Bobby K)

Why would anyone want to take a big chance on a quarterback that scouts thought was only worth a seventh round pick and has since only started two games in a four year NFL career?

There’s a difference between taking a chance on someone at or near the league minimum and signing somebody who will make around $10 million per season. Such is the great debate with respect to signing Green Bay free agent quarterback Matt Flynn.

I believe the Seattle Seahawks should make every effort to sign Flynn when free agency begins on March 13.

First of all, if you look at his scouting report coming out of college, you will see that some of his weaknesses, according to NFL scouts, have turned into strengths. For example, his arm strength was questioned coming out of college, but now the consensus seems to be that it’s improved to the point where it is above average and considered a strength, not a liability.

Two NFL starts is not enough to judge if someone is going to be a franchise quarterback. However, those two starts were impressive. I don’t think anyone can deny that fact.

More important than two NFL starts are reports that he is the type of guy who is consistently impressive at practice, confident, poised, a hard worker, natural leader, etc.

It also doesn’t hurt when your Super Bowl winning coach says that, “Based on what I see in the everyday classroom, practice field, he’s ready.” Mike McCarthy isn’t going to throw a player under the bus, but these are the type of reports that we keep hearing about Flynn over and over again and they are quite positive.

If NFL teams were able to conduct a redraft of 2008, you know very well that there’s no way Flynn would last until the seventh round. Just because he was a late round draft pick, doesn’t mean that’s how we should view him today.

When forming an opinion of Matt Flynn, I think we can think of Doug Baldwin, too. He wasn’t even drafted last year. After an impressive training camp and one NFL start, I think Seahawk fans knew he was going to be a decent player moving forward (but not as good as he became).

You can also bet that after week one of the NFL season that some teams would have drafted him, if there could have been a redraft, as opposed to passing on him every time their turn came to choose another player. Even though it had only been training camp and one real game, I think some opinions had changed, and for good reason. Basically, still thinking in terms of Flynn as a seventh round pick is foolish.

Another knock against Flynn is that he didn’t play until his senior season at LSU. Well, I don’t know of too many players who are going to win the starting quarterback job from someone (JaMarcus Russell) who ended up being the #1 player picked in a draft.

Sure, Russell was a bust of colossal proportions, but NFL scouts didn’t predict that while he was still at LSU and starting over Flynn.

If a quarterback can’t be successful in the NFL if they didn’t start multiple seasons in college or get drafted very high, then someone should tell that to Brad Johnson, a ninth round pick in 1992.

All he ever did in a 17-year NFL career was throw for 44 more touchdowns than interceptions, play in two Pro Bowls, and help Tampa Bay win a Super Bowl. Matt Flynn started one collegiate season more than Johnson. That’s right. Brad Johnson was never the starting quarterback at Florida State.

What did Flynn do in his one year of starting at LSU? He won a National Championship and was offensive MVP in that game after throwing for four touchdowns against one interception. Yes, his past three real starts haven’t been too bad.

Another reason I am on the “Sign Flynn” bandwagon is because he is young and has been groomed to be ready for this opportunity. It’s his time now. A rookie quarterback won’t be ready like Flynn is already ready.

If the Seahawks fail to sign a quarterback and choose to draft someone in the first round, they still won’t be “all-in” with their quarterback of the future until year four of this current regime of Pete Carroll and John Schneider, as the assumption is that Tarvaris Jackson will likely hold off a rookie in 2012.

Then, asking a potential draft pick in ’12 to be a first year starter in ’13, I think, is asking too much of a youngster (if the team has legitimate aspirations of winning a Super Bowl that season) because he will likely have no starting experience in the NFL under his belt.

Realistically, this quarterback won’t be ready and experienced enough to successfully lead an NFL franchise to the Super Bowl until potentially 2014. To me, a regime cannot wait until year five before they have a quarterback fully ready to lead its franchise.

I would like to acknowledge there is risk involved with signing or drafting any inexperienced quarterback. As much as I think the odds are stacked for Flynn to become a good starting quarterback, there are no guarantees.

However, one reason I badly want the Seahawks to sign Flynn is because he’s young and is ready to be handed the keys to an NFL team (unlike a rookie). He’s also not going to cost a high draft pick next month (like a rookie).

I realize he won’t come cheap on the free agent market and that his signing will be less money towards other players, but I believe the risk is worth the reward.

I don’t think it’s responsible to keep kicking the can with short-term solutions at the most important position in professional sports. Sometimes you need to have the courage to put your eggs into someone’s basket and go “all in.”

Since there are no guarantees with any of the rookie quarterbacks who will be available with the 12th pick in the draft, I’d much rather go with Flynn and keep the draft picks to continue building the rest of the team.

Instead of asking if the Seattle Seahawks should take a chance on Matt Flynn, perhaps the question should be, “Why wouldn’t they take a chance on him?”

Take of the week
Leave a comment Comments → 80
  1. OCHawkFan says:

    Great article. I’ve been on the Flynn bandwagon since this past summer when I saw him play in the preseason. He has swag, can make all the throws, can grasp a complex offense. Also, he’s proven, to a lesser degree, that he can get it done at the NFL level. Give him $9-$10M a year, draft pass rush early in the draft and lets sit back and enjoy a playoff run next year!

  2. Very nice Bob! Much more convincing argument than that TJ rubbish. Heh.

    Nice to re-look at some of that Flynn video too. Makes it hard not to want that dude on your team.

  3. RDPoulsbo says:

    I generally agree with you about Flynn. There really aren’t any guarantees with Flynn, but he has also been playing in an offensive scheme that closely resembles what the Seahawks are trying to install with Bevell. Remember that Bevell came into the league though Green Bay’s coaching staff before he left with Childress for to Minnesota. There’s always a few twists thrown into every offense, but the transition of terminology, plays, philosophy, etc. would be very minimal. That was the whole reason T-Jax was brought to Seattle in the first place, but from what I’ve seen, Flynn is much better.

  4. wallinator says:

    The Matt Flynn in Seattle debate is a good one. Are you for it, against it, or on the fence? I think we have to remember that Seahawk GM John Schneider may have had a hand in drafting Flynn for the Packers. If he did, and he and Carroll think the sky is the limit for Flynn, then some of Paul Allen’s money may soon be deposited into Flynn’s bank account. A recent example that may caution teams from opening their cash vault for Flynn, is the Kevin Kolb experiment in Arizona. Like Flynn, Kolb showed flashes of brilliance in spot starts with the Eagles. After being handed the reigns in The Valley of The Sun, Kolb had mixed results. He couldn’t stay healthy and didn’t win as many games as the Cardinals would have liked. Not to mention the Cardinals are on the hook for a minimum of $20M to Kolb, that could max out at $63M. Are you ready to take that salary cap hit on an unproven commodity like Flynn? Starting March 13th we’ll see which team is ready to unload the cash truck on Flynn’s front door…….

  5. RDPoulsbo says:

    I don’t think you can compare Flynn to the Kolb situation. Kolb really made a stupid move to head to Arizona, where he went from a Reid style WCO into a Whisenhunt run Coryell system without having the benefit of an offseason to get adjusted. This is a lot similar to the scheme reasons I don’t like Manning coming to Seattle. Flynn has played in an offense that came from the same branch of WCO as played in Seattle, so it helps take some of the unknown variables out of the equation.

  6. footballscaa says:

    Wishful thinking.

  7. HawkfaninMT says:

    I am starting to feel as though the market has cooled a bit on Flynn as we have got some distance between that Detroit game and now.

    Teams IMO that would be in hunt:
    Dolphins- If they want him I think they will get him. Philbin connections plus money to spend. I think the wildcard here is Peyton manning. I think the ownership group in Miami would prefer Manning and thus would be willing to spend less on their 2nd option. Also have Sherman in place as OC and would be in perfect position to draft his understudy, Tannenhill.

    Redskins- Haven’t seen much in the way of connections here or rumors about interest. Which in these days probably means there is some! Redskins are in prime position to go after Manning, trade up for RG3, or take Tannenhill. From reports that I’ve heard Tannenhill would fit well into the Shannahan Offense.

    Browns- All I hear about is them wanting to trade up for RG3. I am not sure how much they would consider Flynn an upgrade from Colt McCoy so I don’t see them offering up huge money for Flynn.

    Seahawks- See above!

    I guess my point is that when it first seemed like all four of these teams would be falling over each other to sign Flynn, it now seems like they all have other options that may be preferable. Time will tell, but if he could be had for under 9 I feel like that would be a coup!

  8. Palerydr says:

    Bobby definetely a well written argument for Flynn. However I would argue after watching the first youtube that his arm strength is avg to below avg at best. Look at the int at 8:27 and you can clearly see he underthrew that ball even though he was able to step into the throw with no one in his face. IMO and with the limited scouting reports available to me there is now way I sign this guy for big money. I don’t see Kolb as a complete failure as others want to however there are enough similarities between the 2 that make me wary of spending too much. If he were to sign for 5-6 mil a year I would certainly consider it but I highly doubt that he will go for that amount.

  9. Seahawkfan78 says:

    Give Flynn 12 mil a year. I understand that he is unproven, but as I see it right now. He is the best QB for us right now. Give him a front loaded contract for the first two or three years. If he doesn’t pan out drop him and have someone in reserve to take over. Most likely we are going to have to pay big bucks to keep our secondary around when Flynn’s front loaded contract gets smaller.

  10. chuck_easton says:

    Fence sitter here! If he signed with us I’d welcome him with open arms.

    If he went somewhere else I wouldn’t lose any sleep.

    It’s sounding as if Miami has a big team/man crush on Payton Manning and will make a big play for him.

    That takes one potential rival out.

    The Browns appear to be cooling on the whole trading up for RGIII thing so I think they might be a big competitor here.

    Washington REALLY wants RGIII so they are probably going to be the one to make that move.

    So, it’s really between us and the Browns. Throw in KC as a wild card and that’s probably it.

  11. hawkfaninoklahoma says:

    nice bobby good reading. have to agree with palerydr on the interception more thou if you watch that game many of the throws were underthrown and the recievers adjusted to the ball. amazing how great recievers make a average QB look great. that said i still think he is a big improvement over Tjack but is he a 8-10 million improvement? moreover if we get flynn we don’t get mario, not that would be a problem you just have to decide who you really want. i think i have made my feelings on mannning clear so that leaves flynn or a draft pick. it will be ineresting to see how this pans out.

  12. Glad to see the argument get its full play. Thanks for posting the tapes as well.

  13. Aw, you have to be an insider to see the deal on Flynn. Would be interesting to read, although I bet we could come up with the reasons to be careful, on our own.

    So interesting to see such varied takes on Flynn. Some want to sign him at any cost, and some wouldn’t want to pay more than 4-5 mil. Guess I’m somewhere in between.

  14. I agree that his arm strength looked questionable in the 1st start. He must have hit the juice though because his arm looked pretty damn adequate in that second start. Several accurate long balls delivered in stride. That shows improvement and in only 2 starts I take that as a positive sign.

    Is he a risk? Yes.
    Is he worth the risk? To me, Yes.

    My guess is that at peak he becomes a B++ quarterback. Good enough to carry a team at times and to win the Superbowl but not quite at that top tier level of QBs. I think the same of Eli Manning.

  15. HawkfaninMT says:

    I am really starting to warm to the idea of letting Red go (GASP!) and signing Jason Jones. I don’t think Jones would cost more, maybe less, and would be a good fit as a 3-tech DT. That would come with the caveat that the coaches are comfy with Branch and Levingston at 5 tech if they plan to keep the same Def Front

  16. FleaFlicker says:

    “Sometimes you need to have the courage to put your eggs into someone’s basket and go ‘all in.'”

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Let’s face it folks, the cost might be high, but let’s not be blinded by dollars and cap space. Saving those draft picks to shore up the positions in need is our best bet for the future. As I’m sure BobbyK will point out later in the series, any rookie QB or expensive move up the draft board carries its own set of risks, arguably even greater than a pricey FA acquisition. Flynn is a guy that could go the distance, in ’12 or ’13. At the age of 26, he could be around here for a good while.

    Goddang it I cannot wait for the draft to get here.

  17. JohnnyBG says:

    “Why wouldn’t they take a chance on him?”

    Because instead of having a luxurious amount of time to pass the ball and a WR corps who gets open and catches the ball consistently as he did when he wracked up numbers with GB, he’ll have the same hindrances that held back TJack, very shaky pass protection (2nd worst in the NFL) and no one open to throw to. His chances of doing much better than TJack under those conditions are certainly not enough to justify using a majority of the Seahawks remaining cap space.

  18. “Fence sitter here! If he signed with us I’d welcome him with open arms.
    If he went somewhere else I wouldn’t lose any sleep.”

    Right there with you. Not convinced he’s worth the money/time commmitment, but absolutely willing to listen if our GM thinks he’s the guy.

  19. Great article! I must admit that I at first was very doubtful about this Flynn-to-Seattle-thing, but now I truly believe that he indeed could be our future franchise quarterback. He has learned alot of Aaron Rodgers, no doubt there. He has proved himself in preseason games and in his two NFL starts. I know there’s alot of questions about how big a risk this might be, because you can’t compare Packers with Seahawks, at all. But we have to look inside and ask ourself one thing; Do we want T-Jack back for another season and hope that we could win the division again, or do we want to sign a talented QB, with experience and alot of “need-to-know” stuff?

    I’m all in for Flynn, I think we should go after him. But the big problem is of course how much money he’s looking for. We still need to sign our own free agents and have enough money for Williams, so if Carroll and Schneider can work it out, which I truly believe they can, then I suppose we are about to show everyone how good a team we are with a few more solid players at some positions.

    God, can’t wait for free agency and the draft!

  20. chuck_easton says:

    Is it Tuesday March 13th yet? No? OK, back to bed. Wake me in a week.

  21. Dukeshire says:

    I believe once Red’s tests the market, he’ll realize it’s a bit dries than he anticipates. Seattle’s DL scheme is ideal for him and I’d be surprised if (m)any team makes him a more attractive offer than Seattle. But he’ll have to find that out for himself out there first, before he re-signs.

  22. Dukeshire says:


  23. RDPoulsbo says:

    There is no such thing as a safe move at QB. At some point, they’re going to need to take a risk if they want to move forward and I think Flynn is a reasonable risk to take.

    Ultimately though, I think Miami has the inside track. Going with the coach he knows makes it the easiest transition, though I’d think Seattle would be the #2 choice.

  24. sascotch says:

    This sounds eerily similar to the day when we signed a second string back up quarter back from Green Bay behind Brett Farve. Look how that worked out for us. Playoffs and a Superbowl appearance. Of course this isn’t exactly the same situation though and like anything else when Drafting or looking at Free Agency, every teams gambles in hopes that it will work out. That’s what we did when we signed TJ and CW. Im on the bandwagon and say bring him in for a two year contract and see how the dice roll.

  25. boycie99 says:

    If its a choice between Mario or Flynn, I would go for Mario. Its a position of major need and you know what you are getting.
    Thats the problem with Flynn we will end up in a bidding war and we just dont know what we are getting. Now if PC and JS make a play im cool with that as they have a much better understanding of Flynn and his capabilities but from an outsider it seems a lot of money to pay for a guy who supposedly has the potential but in the end was a 7th round pick for a reason and has had only 2 NFL starts.

    As pointed out by JohnnyBG if the receivers cant get open and the guys up front cant protect Flynn even if he turns out to be great isnt going to be the superstar we all hope for.

    Personally I think they will go with Tjack and a 2nd/3rd round draft pick and maybe make a play for Campbell in Free Agency…..

    But hey what do I know

  26. Note: Flynn didn’t play with a majority of the best Packer players in that Detroit game. I’d argue that going into 2012 that the Seahawks offensive line is going to be better than the Packers.

  27. RDPoulsbo says:

    One other thing that’s overlooked about that Detroit game is Flynn led his team back in a 2 minute offense to win the game. T-Jax has failed to do that every chance he had.

  28. I also don’t think it’s fair to blame all 50 sacks on the OL of the Seahawks. T-Jack clearly has poor pocket presence and there were needless sacks that wouldn’t have been taken this past season even if the QB had average pocket awareness. We all saw that.

  29. JazBadAzz says:

    Just heard on sportscenter that the colts and Manning are parting ways! Good news for teams that don’t want to pay a boat load of cash for Flynn…maybe this could help bring the price down for a unproven QB vs QB in his twilight years with a bad neck!

  30. You are a good writer, BobbyK. It’s enough to bring me out of retirement for one day.

    My take on Flynn is he is very similar to Matt Cassell. If you give him a good system, running game and WRs he can play at a strong level. But Matt Cassell type QBs command 6 year, $66 million contracts whereas I think Carroll values them at 3 years, $20 million. For this reason, I think there is a very low probability the Seahawks sign Flynn. I think the Seahawks have a higher probability of signing Manning (which is still pretty low).

    My guess on the musical chairs of QB:
    * Manning – Miami
    * RGIII – Washington
    * Flynn – Cleveland
    * Tannehill – Seahawks, Round I

    As far as RGIII, I see a massive gap between his floor and his ceiling. He can be a tremendous bust or an elite QB. He is nowhere near as NFL ready as Luck and in College I saw him as a one read and run Spread QB. He has the physical and mental skillset to become elite in time but it will take a franchise altering ransom to get him. Therein lies the risk with RG3. The closest comparison I see in terms of the gap between ceiling and floor is Jason Pierre-Paul.

  31. “My guess on the musical chairs of QB:
    * Manning – Miami
    * RGIII – Washington
    * Flynn – Cleveland
    * Tannehill – Seahawks, Round I”

    That mirrors my best guess too. Only random thing I see happening is some other team, like the Jets, comes out of the woodwork to lure Manning.

  32. Sarcasticus says:

    I agree with Joyner. Pass on Flynn. That money can best be used elsewhere. LSU quarterback…still funny stuff.

  33. Sarcasticus says:

    From this week’s Peter King MMQB makes me think Tannehill may be the choice.

    I think the admirers for Ryan Tannehill continue to grow, despite the fact he was a part-time wide receiver at Texas A&M. This from GM John Schneider of the Seahawks: “The guy was a quarterback in high school, just a football player. First and foremost, that’s what we’re looking for. Especially at that position. Guys that have always been in the quarterback schools, the special camps, and all that kind of stuff — they make me a little nervous to a certain extent. This guy is a real football player. He played defense. You could see him last year when he stepped in, he just went out and played. He had this natural toughness about him that the players really rallied around and went on a winning streak. And he did a great job.”

    Read more:

  34. pabs – Stick around!!!

    For the record, not too long ago I wanted to sign Flynn at almost any cost. He’s still my #1 hope to be lining up under center week 1, but I would no longer support the crazy $14 million stuff that I had mentioned some weeks ago either.

    One thing that worries me about Manning to the Dolphins is that they may also draft Tannenhill. Then we’d be up a crick (not Jared).

  35. Palerydr says:

    Nice to see you still read the comments Pabuwal. Welcome back even if it is for just one comment. I like your comparison and I also feel Pete doesn’t value the QB as much as others. He’s much more concerned with putting together a great TEAM. I suspect that his philosophy is such that say you have a great QB and you count on him to be the offense. Then this QB goes down with an inj and you’re stuck with a BU QB. If I’m right then Pete believes that having a great team means overcoming mediocre QB play. However that philosophy is flawed a bit. Your mediocre QB HAS to be able to lead a 4th quarter comeback something Jackson has not accomplished yet.

  36. Dukeshire says:

    Well, well… Look who’s here. Come on Pabs, just jump back in already.

  37. It’s hard not to get giddy over that highlight clip of Flynn. But we need to remember that team is stacked with talent. Thats not slamming flynn in any way, I just think its important to keep in perspective. This offseason is about to get interesting!

  38. ChrisHolmes says:

    Re: Arm Strength.

    I don’t know if any of you remember, but when Hasselbeck took over the reigns as the Seahawks starter, he had one of the weaker arms in the league. I remember when it was he and Marc Bulger competing in the offseason “Quarterback Challenge” in Orlando. Anyone remember that? He and Bulger had two of the weakest arms, and they subsequently had the shortest tosses in the distance competition.

    Hasselbeck, if I recall correctly, could only muster a 56-yard throw. Bulger was worse (54?). Favre threw it 75+ yards both times, but his tosses sailed wide out-of-bounds of the narrow throwing lane area.

    I recall the camera and microphone guys getting shots of Bulger and Hasselbeck laughing about their weak displays of arm-strength.

    The simple fact is, in the NFL it’s the intermediate throw that is king. Most balls travel between 10 and 25 yards through the air. Anticipating the throwing windows is what matters. We’ve all seen a number of great, strong-armed guys struggle mightily in the NFL because they lack anticipation and the NFL game is so fast that DB’s can pick those passes off. Likewise, we’ve seen many mediocre arm-strength QB’s succeed because of smarts, anticipation and accuracy.

    Flynn looks accurate to me. And accuracy appears to be the one thing you cannot teach a QB. Either he will be accurate by the time he leaves college, or he won’t.

    Flynn: Smart, accurate, anticipates throwing windows, good enough arm strength.

    Honestly, when I watch the guy on film, I see a young Matt Hasselbeck.

    Question is: Is the Seahawks current front office the type of folks who want another Hasselbeck? We know Holmgren would probably jump at Flynn if he were still GM. But the way JS and PC talk, I just don’t see Flynn being their kind of guy.

    I think by the time the draft and FA are over, we’re all going to be scratching our heads saying, “This was your plan all along?” I honestly think JS and PC are going to hit us with a QB configuration that none of us see coming, and which really doesn’t look all that appealing…

  39. ChrisHolmes says:

    @Sarcasticus I read that on Monday too and that whole thing made me scratch my head.

    Either JS is a fool, or he’s blowing smoke up our bums in the hopes of throwing people off the Seahawks draft-day plans (and it IS the draft season, so that’s entirely possible).

    I mean, being nervous about guys who spend all their time in QB camps? What kind of moron makes that statement? Hello?? This is the NFL baby! This is NOT college ball! Athletic QB’s do NOT matter here!!! If you’re a QB, you need to be the BEST QB possible! That means throwing the football and being accurate; getting the ball to playmakers… Sheesh. That comment just makes me think that JS has NO CLUE what the QB position is about at the NFL level…

    That’s one of the first comments I’ve ever read from JS that made me think the guy is just not that smart and is completely detached from the NFL game… It scares me, as a fan, quite frankly. I feel like with a GM thinking like that, we’re never going to get our QB situation addressed adequately. Not with this regime in charge.

    Everything else on this team might rock. But our QB situation is floundering on the verge of complete uselessness. And with comments like that, I cannot imagine us improving it.

  40. This might just be the kool-aid in me, but I think, moving forward to 2012, that our OL is better than the Packers.

    The Beast means that our RB situation is much better than the Packers, too.

    Finley has Miller beat at TE, but I don’t think it’s a huge difference.

    I like Sidney Rice more than Greg Jennings. However, we all know that Rice must stay healthy.

    We’ll see what the Packers do with Jordy Nelson, but if they don’t resign him (all it takes is some dumb team like the Redskins to keep him from going back to Green Bay) then I don’t think the Pack have an advantage at WR either.

    Again, I certainly wouldn’t trade RB or OL situations moving forward for theirs, even if they have better receivers (and quarterback).

    Really, I don’t see where the Packer offense is all that much better, outside the QB position, moving forward.

    Reality or kool-aid?

  41. Dukeshire says:

    I don’t think there’s any question Seattle has a better OL right now, and potential, than Green Bay. They have a better WR crops (and I don’t think it close). And of course I’ll take Lynch, but there is a need there as well. So generally, I say reality. But of course, they have one of the best QBs in football that makes up for a lot of deficiencies.

  42. Dukeshire says:

    They, meaning GB, regarding receiver.

  43. HawkfaninMT says:

    I dont think nelson is an FA is he? Would love to see him and Flynn brought over if so. He could take BMW’s spot opposite Rice

  44. Dukeshire says:

    He’s not. He signed a 4 year extension this past October.

  45. How’d I miss that?

  46. All right. Saw those two tapes. Sorry to say, I’m not that impressed. In the NE game, it looked like he was winding up to throw, and he was taking a lot of sacks. (Is this the game we’re supposed to watch? I thought he won that one… This one looks like GB lost.) Of course he made a lot of great throws in the Lions game, but it also looked to me like the Lions secondary wasn’t playing very well, getting out of position, not making tackles when they could have. In the NE game, it didn’t look like he had a great instinct for avoiding the sack. It would be interesting to see a reel of T-Jack’s best games last year and compare.

  47. Thanks Snappa! I was thinking maybe I was watching the wrong clips based on the comments here. Not impressed. Arm looks way weak to me. That weak arm sure works well for screens and it seemed like there were alot of them and his playmakers were busting them for big gains. Flynn – pass. Hope they draft one of the second tier QB’s. They look every bit as being capable of at least what Flynn was doing there.

  48. I’m hoping we draft Kellen Moore in the middle/lower rounds of the draft. I know there’s a lot of people putting him down physically but I still think if given a chance he might be a great QB in the NFL. Simular to Brees.

    If we sign Flynn that would be great to boot.

    Use the rest of the draft to stock up on talent for the DL, LB, OL and RB in no particular order.

    Cheers! Nice articles Bobby K.

  49. No to Moore unless it is 6th round or later. Brees only weakness was height – no one ever questioned his speed or arm strength out of college

  50. I still find it interesting that people try and say ignore the Lions game, but you can’t overlook 480yards and 6 td’s. BOTH GB records. They have had great players and teams that have played against many teams worse than Det. that day and they didn’t put up those kinds of numbers.

    Does he still have room to grow YES, but IMO he is already better than TJack

    Comp Att Pct Yds Avg TD Int Sck SckY Rate
    Flynn 82 132 62.1 1,015 7.7 9 5 13 62 92.8
    Tjack 625 1,053 59.4 7,075 6.7 38 35 89 540 77.7

    Thats over 34 starts compared to 2 – Flynn has Higher completion % and a Significantly better QB rating – the amount of sacks is worrisome.

    But Tjack rating this year was only better than Fitzpatrick 79.1, Sanchez 78.2, Freeman 74.6, McCoy 74.6, Grossman 72.4 and Gabbert 65.4 of guys who attempted more than 400 passes. We all love to pick on Alex Smith who was 11 points higher than Jackson. The 14 points that separate Gabbert and Jackson is a HUGE amount. But if you add 14 points to Jackson he breaks into the top 10 at #8.

    Also, Rookies Dalton and Newton were higher AND wiping posts, Kolb, Hasselbeck, and Matt Moore.

    it is true that QB ratings aren’t perfect and aren’t a total accurate reading of the play of the QB – but the do give you a picture of what you should look at

  51. Ok so 3 national writers King, Trotter and LaCanfora are all reporting that the Seahawks are HIGHLY interested in Manning AND bringing Wayne along for the ride.

    Should be an interesting day – who is going to be watching Colts Presser at Noon

  52. Dukeshire says:

    Any comparison of Jackson and Flynn stats is misleading. Flynn’s sample size is just too small to really make anything out of a comparison.

    IMO, he most misleading thing about the QB Rating is the name itself. It’s a passer rating only, and being a QB entails quite a bit more.

    xcman – What did you mean by Dalton and Newton being wiping posts? Not sure I caught what you were trying to say.

  53. Dukeshire says:

    If those three say it’s likely, then I know it’s never happening. Only Tod McShay might be less informative that those guys.

  54. Palerydr says:

    Wayne is close to the end of the line I understand why they would be a package deal but I’m not paying starter money to Wayne no way no how.

  55. Macabrevity says:

    I guess when you compare the risk of loss (10 mill/year? and no draft picks) to what we gave up for Whitebust (5 mill/year plus some high picks) I don’t see this as having any worse bust potential than that deal. Still not sold, but did like the article.

  56. freedom_X says:

    I think Red Bryant will be a more valuable commodity on the open market than many here think. I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be an excellent 3-4 end, and the 3-4 defense is more common now than the 4-3. 3-4 ends aren’t expected to generate great pass rush, but do need to occupy blockers and hold the edge against the run.

    The only reason I’d hesitate to pay Bryant Marshawn Lynch money is due to his injury history. I’d rather give Bryant a bigger base and smaller bonus (or guaranteed money paid on a per-year basis). We’ll see if other teams think his injury history is a concern.

    I have no problems with an experienced veteran relying more on anticpation and accuracy than arm strength, but I don’t want to spend a lot (#1 pick or big free agent money) on a young QB with so-so arm strength. Accuracy and anticipation are also a function of the team elements around the QB. A strong arm isn’t just to get the ball deep – it gives the young QB extra split seconds to think about his throw. Eventually experience will more than make up for that, but it’s a risk.

    If the guy shows he can throw accurately under adverse conditions (constant, heavy pressure, bad weather, etc.) then I’m more sold on a young guy demonstrating that.

    Tarvaris Jackson did have poor pocket presence, but the line in the 1st 6 games was nothing more than dreadful in pass protection. It was like watching a jailbreak. A healthy Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady would have made more plays, but they probably wouldn’t have lasted beyond game 8 at best before getting hurt and missing games. Jackson didn’t last either, though that was his own doing, recklessly diving for yardage.

  57. I am leaning to the side of caution with both Mannign and Flynn. I really do think that PC & JS both feel they can win with T-Jack (not sure why).

    For some reason I have the feeling they will sign someone in the 3rd that has a low grade and suprise everyone. If I had to put money on it – I would say it will be Austin Davis in the 3rd (a good two rounds higher than most are projecting) – Hawks have been scouting him all year through college (think I read that on Fieldgulls or via Rob Stantons Blog) and he threw better at the combine than many expected.

    He also gives us something different from what we currently have – not quite as mobile as T-Jack and Portis – more of a pocket QB, although one of his strengths is rolling out of the pocket and delivering the pass.

    I just don’t see us investing big bucks in a QB “this year” – they’ll look to concentrate on DL/LB in the first two rounds and get the guy they want in the 3rd (imo)

  58. Macabrevity says:

    Seem to be hearing a bit of talk about Jason Campbell which doesn’t make any sense. Why bring in Tarvaris Jackson when you already have Tarvaris Jackson. These two guys are both 8-8 QB’s anywhere they go. Decent but not great.

    We stick with T Jack (who seems to have the respect of the Hawks offensive players) until we are ready to plug in the guy who can lead us to the promised land. Campbell isn’t that guy.

    Also, for those of you clamoring for Ryan “Gabbert” Tannehill with the #12 pick…. I assume you also want me to post a video link of me busting my TV if/when it happens?

  59. Macabrevity says:

    @Duke… good call on Todd McShay… how did that guy land that job?

  60. @ Macabrevity

    I would love to see that video ;) and for the record I’m with you with Tannehill. He sure got talent, but I doubt his ability to be a starter. It’s tough to talk draft before we know how free agency looks like though, so it could go in all directions at the moment.

  61. SandpointHawk says:

    My guess to the question you asked Duke…

    Duke “xcman – What did you mean by Dalton and Newton being wiping posts? Not sure I caught what you were trying to say.”

  62. mquinn73 says:

    Two questions:

    1. What are the chances of Manning going to Arizona?
    2. If so, then do Arizona cut Kolb?

    And a third…
    3. Kolb to the ‘hawks?

    I know the chance of this ‘domino effect’ chain of events happening is slim, but could it happen?

  63. Bobby K, nicely written, well balanced. Thanks.

  64. @ mquinn73

    That’s hard to tell really. It could happen yeah, but the chances for it is, in my book, at 1%. I do not think that all these scenarios you make will happen. I believe that Arizona will keep Kolb for another season. They gave up alot for him, so I doubt they will drop him after one season. Their GM would look very bad if they did, so no.

    Manning could be ours and I think he will accept a contract for a year at any team, just so he can prove that he still have what it takes.

  65. SandpointHawk says:

    I know this is from Lars Hanson (and he’s what 16 now?)but I gotta run and don’t have time to chase the Jim Trotter article down….

  66. Dukeshire says:

    If Manning were to go to Arizona, they would definitely cut Kolb, but that’s nearly impossible to believe that will happen, as KD states.

  67. GeorgiaHawk says:

    Good read BobbyK!

    And yet another Manning update.

    Wish list for 3rd round of draft.

    1- Nick Foles- QB

    2-Cam Johnson- DE

    3-LaMichael James-RB

    4-Billy Win -DT

    5-Brandon Washington- G/OT

  68. Southendzone says:

    This is a great argument for us Hawks fans to be having.

    Go get Manning & Wayne, bank on the fact that you’re getting the REAL Manning for maybe 3 years and pull out all the stops to win the Superbowl. If the FO has done their homework and feels like Manning will be close to 100%, this is hard to argue with. What would all you Hawk fans sacrifice for 1 Superbowl in the next 3 years?


    Get Flynn, keep drafting solid players, make some smart FA acquisitions, not meaning the big name big $ guys. See what this team can develop into and maybe we get to another dominant 5 year run where we get a chance at the Superbowl in the next 6 years.

    I’m OK with either route, but I think I just talked myself into the Manning plan.


  69. GeorgiaHawk says:

    If Manning were to go to Arizona, do you think the Cardinals would have a good chance of being a playoff contender like they were with Warner?

  70. Dukeshire says:

    I don’t. That roster had so much more talent when Warner was there. They now have a ton of holes.

  71. Sarcasticus says:

    Check this out.

    Basically it is a tweet from Rich Cimini of ESPN saying that the Seahawks will come out “checkbook blazing” for Manning.

  72. I agree with Duke. Although you never say never. If they are lucky, healthy and fit, well then who knows right?

  73. GeorgiaHawk says:

    If arizona had as much talent as they did with Warner would a healthy Manning make a difference like Warner?

  74. HawkfaninMT says:

    XCMAN meant that Hass, Kolb and Moore are WHIPPING posts… i think

  75. RDPoulsbo says:

    I’m not going to worry about the Hawks landing Manning unless I hear that Paul Allen’s jet has left Boeing Field. If it leaves Sunday night, then they’re likely going to pull all the stops for another FA like Mario Williams.

    Warner was a perfect fit for the Rams and Cards spread offenses, but he also shows it’s biggest weakness. The 3 years when he went to the Superbowl were the only 3 years he was ever healthy for the entire season. Manning to Arizona is an interesting idea. He’s certainly a better fit for their Coryell offense, but their line will get him killed. The Jets still seem to be the best fit if they decide to can the Sanchez experiment.

  76. Dukeshire says:

    Like Warner? Who knows. But a healthy Manning would be an upgrade over Kolb. Regardless, they are much more than a QB away, however.

  77. ryanryan says:

    i would rather spend money on manning, who already said (i believe) that he would sign an incentive based contract, than flynn. this would allow us to use the draft to continue building while having a qb ready to win for this year at least. next year, see how we are with needs and at that time determine if we need to ‘sell the farm’ to get barkley or landry.

    i read someone’s post about carroll not having a high value on qb’s, i think that is correct…how much of that usc ‘team talent’ hid the short comings of leinart and sanchez, whom i would describe as poor and mediocre respectively at the nfl level.

  78. Good stuff, Bobby.

    I don’t see Flynn as a very big risk. I just see him as very overpriced for what he likley is – a very well-coached and well-disciplined QB with average skills. Flynn looks great when surrounded by a super bowl caliber team firing on all cylinders. On a lesser team than GB he might be an average QB(?) That’s the big question. Teams that overpay for an average QB tend to struggle and decline.

    We have to compare Flynn and his $10M+ against the other QBs available, including price tag and risks.

    In this year’s draft, QBs who are drafted between #11 and #32 will get about $6.7M a year. Tannehill or Cousins can be had for that price. The ceiling for either of those guys might be much higher than Flynn’s ceiling, although both also have higher risk of being busts. Either of those guys is a big risk but either might pay off in a huge way while allowing the team to invest in additional players. If we were to sign Flynn at the expense of losing Red Bryant, I’m not sure I’d like that deal.

    Still, Flynn looks like a great fit for Seattle’s offense. If Carroll and Bevell like him as much as BobbyK likes him, this could be a great story in the making.

  79. nighthawk2 says:

    This I agree with completely. I want Flynn, for the future, not Manning for the very, very short term.

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