Seahawks Insider

Hawks 20th in sudden change situations

Post by Eric Williams on Oct. 28, 2011 at 9:26 am with 4 Comments »
October 28, 2011 9:30 am
Seattle Seahawks free safety Earl Thomas (29) and cornerback Walter Thurmond (28) defend on a pass intended for Cleveland Browns wide receiver Greg Little (15) in the second quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 23, 2011, in Cleveland. The Browns won 6-3. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

It’s all about the ball.

Ask Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll what’s the most significant predictor of the outcome of game on any given Sunday, and he’ll point to turnovers. That’s one of the reasons Carroll created a day to concentrate on both creating turnovers and hanging onto the ball during his practice week.

“It’s still taking care of the football,” Carroll said. “As long as you can take care of it the turnover thing still tells the story. It still is the key factor when you win the turnover battle. That’s one of the most significant factors there is in the game.”

Stats back up Carroll’s claim. Since the 2000 season, teams with a plus-1 turnover ratio have won 68.8 percent of the games, while teams with a plus-2 turnover ratio have won 83 percent of those contests.

This year from time to time we’ll take a look at something I call Sudden Change situations, which is basically what a team does when turnovers happen. Does the offense take the ball, march down the field and hang six points on the other team? Dos the defense toughen up and force the other team to punt?

According to the chart below, the Seahawks are 20th in the league in Sudden Change situations. They have a -3 turnover ratio.  Seattle has given up 20 points off 11 turnovers while scoring just 10 points off eight turnovers forced by the defense.

By comparison, Buffalo, which leads the league in these situations, has given up just 17 points defensively when the Bills offense has turned the ball over, while scoring 79 points off of turnovers offensively.

The Seahawks finished 26th overall in Sudden Change situations last year. Seattle had a -9 turnover ratio, giving up 88 points off turnovers while scoring 52 points off turnovers for a -36 points differential.

Sudden Change Situations

Team TO-forced TO-lost Net G-away Pts. T-away Pts. Net
Buffalo 16 7 9 17 79 62
Detroit 15 5 10 21 75 54
Houston 12 6 6 17 59 42
Baltimore 15 11 4 20 47 27
Green Bay 16 8 8 17 40 23
Atlanta 13 12 1 30 48 18
San Francisco 14 6 8 27 36 9
Cincinnati 9 6 3 22 30 8
N.Y. Giants 13 9 4 30 38 8
Minnesota 9 6 3 23 31 8
New Orleans 7 11 -4 37 45 8
Arizona 7 -12 -5 24 31 7
N.Y. Jets 16 13 3 45 49 4
Chicago 12 8 4 27 28 1
Miami 4 11 -7 17 17 0
Tampa Bay 13 12 1 28 27 -1
Tennessee 8 8 0 17 13 -4
Washington 8 14 -6 29 24 -5
Cleveland 8 6 2 24 16 -8
Seattle 8 11 -3 20 10 -10
Oakland 11 13 -2 48 37 -11
New England 11 10 1 37 26 -11
San Diego 7 12 -5 34 21 -13
Philadelphia 9 17 -8 45 31 -14
Dallas 12 13 -1 54 40 -14
Pittsburgh 3 12 -9 33 17 -16
Jacksonville 8 10 -2 22 3 -19
Carolina 8 10 -2 37 16 -21
Denver 8 13 -5 43 20 -23
Kansas City 11 12 -1 51 24 -27
Indianapolis 7 12 -5 62 23 -39
St. Louis 7 0 -2 48 6 -42
Leave a comment Comments → 4
  1. Dukeshire says:

    I really like this stat. I think it’s a fair a representation of how teams are playing. (Unlike so many or the other non-sense stats like the o-line stats, win probability, etc…) Speaking of which, where has klm008 been? Haven’t seen him around since Steve Jobs passed. Perhaps he’s still in mourning.

  2. SandpointHawk says:

    I thought I was the only one wondering where klm008 was. I miss his passion.

  3. osoviejo says:

    Interesting chart, thanks Eric (though it’s a differential, not a ratio).

  4. Maybe klm008 was Steve Jobs?????????

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