It’s all about the ball.
Ask Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll what’s the most significant predictor of the outcome of game on any given Sunday, and he’ll point to turnovers. That’s one of the reasons Carroll created a day to concentrate on both creating turnovers and hanging onto the ball during his practice week.
“It’s still taking care of the football,” Carroll said. “As long as you can take care of it the turnover thing still tells the story. It still is the key factor when you win the turnover battle. That’s one of the most significant factors there is in the game.”
Stats back up Carroll’s claim. Since the 2000 season, teams with a plus-1 turnover ratio have won 68.8 percent of the games, while teams with a plus-2 turnover ratio have won 83 percent of those contests.
This year from time to time we’ll take a look at something I call Sudden Change situations, which is basically what a team does when turnovers happen. Does the offense take the ball, march down the field and hang six points on the other team? Dos the defense toughen up and force the other team to punt?
According to the chart below, the Seahawks are 20th in the league in Sudden Change situations. They have a -3 turnover ratio. Seattle has given up 20 points off 11 turnovers while scoring just 10 points off eight turnovers forced by the defense.
By comparison, Buffalo, which leads the league in these situations, has given up just 17 points defensively when the Bills offense has turned the ball over, while scoring 79 points off of turnovers offensively.
The Seahawks finished 26th overall in Sudden Change situations last year. Seattle had a -9 turnover ratio, giving up 88 points off turnovers while scoring 52 points off turnovers for a -36 points differential.
Sudden Change Situations
|Team||TO-forced||TO-lost||Net||G-away Pts.||T-away Pts.||Net|