Of the two teams that are playing in Super Bowl 44, I’ve only had the pleasure of seeing one of them in person this season, the Indianapolis Colts.
In that game, Colts quarterback Peyton Manning dissected Seattle’s defense with surgeon-like precision in a 34-17 win that was not as close as the score indicated.
As potent as the Colts and the New Orleans Saints offenses are, I’m going with the Colts in this one for one reason – their defense.
I believe Indianapolis, even with a banged up Dwight Freeney, will pose enough of a threat defensively to slow down the Saints’ potent offense. I think New Orleans defense is a lot like Arizona’s defense last season. They excel at creating turnovers, but otherwise offer no real resistance for an offense like Indy.
Unlike Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson two weeks ago against Minnesota, I don’t think the Colts will turn the ball over that much today.
The Saints will try to get to Manning, but they won’t with any real consistency. And I think the Colts will try to run the ball against the Saints to slow down the pass rush, so expect Joseph Addai to have a big game.
I like Indianapolis going away, 30-17. So who do you like today? Let me know in the comments section.
Pat Kirwan of NFL.com offers 10 things to watch for in today’s game.
Colts are the easy pick, so I will be taking the Saints. Manning threw 16 picks during the regular season and this is a Saints team that lives on turnovers. Addai’s decline in speed and explosiveness will render him ineffective as a rusher. 17 different Saints have scored touchdowns this season. The Saints will continue to spread it around using the 6th best rushing attack to open up big plays for their 4th ranked passing attack. Saints in a shootout 38-34.
By the way, Freeney will play, and if the Colts win, he will be MVP.
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Both Mannings didn’t play great games in their SB appearences and they still both received MVPs. For Freeny to get the MVP in a Colts win, Manning is going to need to throw multiple picks and be held to less than 20 points.
Super Bowl MVP is another popularity contest – and who’s more popular than Manning?
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True. But with all this ankle “will he play / won’t he” he has set himself up to be a hero. People love heros. An average day by Manning and a big day by Freeney is all it will take. It’s just a useless prediction anyway.
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I thought Jeff Saturday had a much better game than Manning three years ago. Even though he had the best day, Manning got the MVP, thanks to the popularity contest that pabuwal alluded to.
I’ll take the Colts, just because I think they are better. They haven’t lost a game all season in which they have tried to win. Even if Addai is banged up, Donald Brown was their #1 pick this past season and has shown the very reasons why he was a 1st rounder.
I agree with Eric in that the Colts have a good offense and defense, while the Saints have a good offense, but a defense that gives up a lot of yards. Granted, they make up for it by making big plays, but I don’t think Manning will throw a couple of picks. He knows the Saints probably can’t beat them if he turns it over. I know turnovers are especially crucial in any NFL game, but even more so with this particular match-up today.
But, on any given day, anything can happen. I think about that Vikings game two weeks ago and some unusual things happened with turnoveres. I know Adrian Peterson is fumble happy, but he had 7 in the regular season and then 3 in that one game.
If anyone should know anything can happen on a given Sunday, look at us. We outgain Pittsburgh, win the turnover battle, etc. But between a Bobby Engram drop on a 3rd down (a sure 1st down), Stevens being a craphole, and Bill f’ing Leavy, weird things can happen in one game.
I won’t be surprised if the Saints win, I just don’t think they will.
Colts 31-27.
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Again, I’m playing contrarian here, but the Colts gave up 339 yards a game vs the Saints 357, not a great disparity. In addition the Saints have a more complete offense.
How do you measure that a center had a better day than a QB? You’ll forgive me if I don’t think Saturday had a greater impact on the Colts victory than Manning. Besides, a QB vs OL when considering MVP awards? Come on now…
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I “like” the Seahawks in the Superbowl but will root for the Saints to upset the Colts, which is pretty damn unlikely.
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Fine. I’m a dumbass and will keep my mouth shut.
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la, la, la, la, la…
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I’ve been hearing about the mighty Colts defense all week long. If you ask me, 18th overall is not very good, especially when you consider that those numbers are inflated by an offense that pushes every opponent into shootout mode early in every game.
Meanwhile the Saints defensive numbers are even worse at 25th overall but then they had to play the NFC East while the Colts trampled over the NFC West in that common quarter of their schedule. Both teams played the AFC East this year so that’s a push. I think defensively they’re pretty even.
I think the only really big difference between these two teams is New Orleans has a very good running attack and Indianapolis has no run game at all. Therefore I think the Saints have the clock on their side but that advantage could disappear in an instant if Manning starts pitching bulls-eyes all over the place. If they do get into hyper shootout mode then Drew Brees is just as capable of shredding the Colts secondary as Manning is of taking apart the NO secondary. It could easily wind up being one of those “last possession wins” type games. In that case you have to figure that turnovers are going to be critical.
On the other hand, the monkey-wrench in the works could easily wind up being the Super Bowl jitters. First time there for the Saints. If they get them it could (probably will) kill them.
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Look man, I’m in no way devaluing o line, I think you know that. But QB is the most important position in organized sports, would you not agree? Popularity or not, glamor and scoring positions will always win out over o linemen in awards, for good or ill. I’m not making the rules…
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Ok this is a good game to lose alot of money. All your picks I read here and the reasons are sound. The way I see it though is that each team is able to come up and play a game that would destroy any defense even the 85 bears.
The Saints can be overwelming, as can the best ever QB who could lead his team to a rediculous offense performance. This dispite how well a defense may rise up. So I believe that this game will depend on which team is clicking on offense, (we may not see the punters today). If both offenses are on their game it may come down to one lapse , one great defensive play or just who has the ball the last. Any rate this should be a fantastic game of offense. And don’t bet your check, save it for season tickets next year cuz next year could be Great for the Hawks!!
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I’m going with the Saints because of the Indy defense.
They don’t give up big plays but are at or near the NFL bottom at giving up small plays. They are bad at giving up third downs, bad in the red zone, bad at stopping long drives, etc. N.O. stays conservative, keeps Manning on the bench and wins.
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Duke – it’s a joke… that’s what my la, la, and smiley face were for.
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I’m with Audible!!! I “Like” the Hawks in the super bowl…. but, after that I really don’t care (most years, and this is one)….
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The AFC South (Tenn, Jax, Houston) has better offenses than the NFC South (TB, Atl, Carolina) which would seem to hurt the Colts defensive ranking.
If the Colts win today, it will be because Manning played a great game. The Colts Defense isn’t a dominant type of defense that shuts down good teams with no offensive support.
This won’t be like 2006 when Manning had a great running game and he played merely ok. Their running game stinks this year and I think it’s because of their offensive line. Both Addai and Brown look terrible and they shouldn’t. Their pass protection looked terrible when Manning didn’t play.
A Colts win here will be truly because Manning elevated what would be a bad offense without him into a great offense.
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I figured, but at the same time, I know how passionate you are about linemen. Sort of preemptive defensiveness on my part. lol.
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http://twitter.com/BJRTH
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Walter Jones twittering he’s going to retire
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My head says the Colts, as in they haven’t lost a game they tried to win all year, while my heart is with the underdog Saints. Mostly, I want a good, close game that isn’t determined by some questionable calls by the refs (grrrrrrr).
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Didn’t he say, after one of his tweets hinting at retirement earlier this year, that he’d never announce something that important on Twitter? That tweet seems pretty conclusive, but I’m wondering what the catch is.
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It says concussion, my bad. Sorry
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Hey Eric, can you provide a copy of the media flip card for today’s game? It’s a nice touch for the big party.
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http://blog.seattlepi.com/football/ PI’s saying it’s for real(?)
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Colts by 21……… 31-10
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I’m hoping the underdog Colts win.
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Colts already weak D with Freeney ineffective?
Saint’s have the #1 rushing offense.
Pierre, Bush and Shockey will have a field day.
Colts make a late rally coming up short
Saint’s 41
Colts 38
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Before the game I said Saints, now I’m wondering if it’s fixed. New Orleans runs a stupid reverse and loses 7 yards, next play they get 1st and goal from the 3, a “false start”, and then on 3rd and 4th run right? Colston drops an easy 2nd down conversion when he’s been making tough catches all game? A deep pass on 3rd and 2? Come on, either Sean Payton is on acid or they don’t want to win this game.
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good game so far.
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Rats
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Couldn’t help rooting for the saints as the game went on…. I’m sure everyone on here recognized the Saint’s Head Coachs’ year’s of experience, yes???
My opinion, He deserves the game MVP…… very well done….
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Sean Payton has gut’s.. The onside kick was enormous. Awesome absolutely awesome.
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What a terrific game and upset! Now, bring on free agency!
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Not an upset, except for Vegas. Football Outsiders had the Colts as the underdog based on performance stats.
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Actually, Vegas did quite well. The money was almost perfectly split between both teams.
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