I read Walterfootball.com regularly, and it’s a good site with many features (in my my view anyway). I do disagree with their mock drafts at times, especially their picks for the Seahawks at times. But I do understand their reasons for having Jacksonville take Tebow. It isn’t because they think his talent level is Top 10, or 1st round or even first 3 rounds. It’s because he’s a big hero in Florida and he will sell tickets being on the roster. I disagreed with this pick when they first put it out many weeks ago, but have come to think they’re right about the Jaguars taking him. If you read their Senior Bowl section, and look at their reports of the four days of practices, you see that there was a legion of Tebow fans at the practices, a lot of young girls in particular, who were there only to see him, no matter how bad Tebow looked (and boy did he look bad from their reports). Walterfootball pulled no punches on Tebow and said it’ll take two or three years before this guy could start in the NFL. But fans were apparently screaming “We want Tebow” whenever he wasn’t on the field in the game. I’m now convinced that Wayne Weaver would insist on taking him in the 1st round to put fans in the stands, however weird it sounds to the rest of us.

I would have no issue with Eric Berry if that’s where we end up. I struggle with Campbell (said it before). Wouldn’t mind Haden. I would actually prefer to trade it for a mid-late first round and second round pick and start doing some rebuilding.

1) Gather the 1st round QB’s taken from 2005-1995. (guys taken after that still have a good chance to get much better, and thus, based on the “3 years to evaluate a draft rule”, I cut off the point to 2005. 10 years.

2) To not be a bust, the player had to be a Pro Bowl player or at least a long term starter (5+ years.) That’s to factor out a guy who’s getting starts because he was a high 1st round pick making big bucks. He’d have to have at least acceptable, if not great, performance to keep his job that long.

I come up with a 53% bust rate. Here’s my list:

Successes:

Overall Name
3 Steve McNair
5 Kerry Collins
1 Peyton Manning
2 Donovan McNabb
1 Michael Vick
1 Carson Palmer
1 Eli Manning
4 Philip Rivers
11 Ben Roethlisberger
24 Aaron Rodgers

Busts?

Overall Name
26 Jim Druckenmiller
2 Ryan Leaf
1 Tim Couch
18 Chad Pennington
1 David Carr
3 Joey Harrington
7 Byron Leftwich
19 Kyle Boller
22 Rex Grossman
22 J.P. Losman
1 Alex Smith
25 Jason Campbell

1st, 3 QB’s in the top 10? Think back 2 months ago. Who thought there would be 3 QB’s in the 1st round, let alone in the top 10? What’s changed? Did Sam Bradford strut his stuff in a dazzling bowl game against a top opponent? Did Jimmy Clausen put up unreal numbers in showing the world the brilliance of a Charlie Weis-coached offense? Did Tim Tebow demonstrate his adeptness at mastering the three-step drop and throw on timing?

No? 2 months ago, everyone thought Jake Locker should turn pro because he was clearly the top choice at QB. I don’t think many people thought he’d have much competition, but according to this mock, he has plenty of top-10 QB company.

Again, I don’t know the specific thinking of this draft author (he may have always had these guys as top-10 since the beginning of the year) but I certainly can see a “fan projection” coming into play if he hasn’t been consistent in supporting these guys. In other words, a reach – a team needs a player at a certain position, and suddenly Mike Williams becomes the next Jonathan Ogden. Or Joey Harrington is the next Peyton Manning.

If there weren’t 3 top 10 QB’s 2 months ago, there shouldn’t be now. And there probably shouldn’t be any 4 months from now (“workout wonder” ring a bell?) And the “NFL owners agreeing to let Tim Tebow slide” rumor is ludricous and proof enough you can’t believe what you read on Pro Football Talk.

Frankly, Matt Stafford didn’t get hurt just because Detroit didn’t draft a tackle. Mark Sanchez got hurt behind a multi-million dollar O-line. Matt Stafford got hurt because he had a weak line, AND he had no running game, AND he had no defense, AND he was a rookie who doesn’t have a great sense yet on when to get rid of the ball. I don’t care if he had Walter Jones in his prime blocking for him, you try to start a rookie QB 16 games on a monumentally bad team, there’s a good chance he gets hurt.

“# Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
JAN. 19 UPDATE: If the Rams take Jimmy Clausen, there’s no doubt that the Lions will select Ndamukong Suh. If Suh is off the board, this pick will be Gerald McCoy. That’s how much misguided faith Detroit’s coaching staff has in the venerable Jeff Backus.

Speaking of Suh, he won’t be playing in the Senior Bowl. However, look for extensive, daily Senior Bowl coverage next week.

JAN. 12 UPDATE: If I were calling the shots in Detroit, this pick would be Russell Okung – even over Suh. To win in this league, you need to (in order): have a quarterback, protect your quarterback and get to the other quarterback. Detroit cannot do the second thing on that list. Last year, I berated the Lions for not drafting Michael Oher or William Beatty, so I can’t say I’m surprised that Matthew Stafford suffered an injury. Beatty has shown some promise with the Giants, while Oher has been prolific at both left and right tackle this year.

Unfortunately for Detroit fans, the team still likes Jeff Backus, even though he allowed eight sacks this year. Jim Schwartz recently expressed his frustration that Backus was not voted to the Pro Bowl.

You’re kidding, right?

Hey, if the Lions want Matthew Stafford to bust because he takes too many sacks and develops the Marc Bulger “I’ve been sacked so many times that I’m just going to heave the ball into triple coverage to avoid getting hit again” syndrome, that’s their problem. Good luck, Detroit. I just hope enough Lions fans can see past all of the lies that the coaching staff is feeding them.”

here’s the link;
http://walterfootball.com/draft2010.php