It’s been one of the frustrating things in watching the Seahawks over the past two games. First and 10, and the Seahawks run an outside zone play left, with Julius Jones being forced out of bounds for a 1-yard gain.
Now the Seahawks have a second and 9 yards to go, and the team’s chances of picking up a first down and moving the chains are lessened because of their inability to gain good yardage on first down.
Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp is keenly aware of this, and talked about it on Wednesday.
Knapp said the team wants to be at a 60 percent efficiency rate on first down, which means they want to gain four or more yards, either running or passing the ball, on first down. Seattle was 35 percent (9-of-26) on Monday against Dallas. They ran the ball on first down to start out on six out of the first seven drives on first down, gaining a total of three yards.
The reasoning behind establishing a good efficiency rating on first down is it makes it easier to convert on third downs.
“Greg Knapp uses the phrase ‘stay on schedule,’” Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said. “Not having negative plays. Like in the Arizona game, as an example, we had a lot of plays for negative yardage. And those are drive killers.”
Seattle’s third down conversation percentage has suffered the last two games because of the team’s struggles on first down. Against Arizona they were 0-for-11. Against Dallas they were 6-of-14 on third downs. For the season the Seahawks are at a 37 percent conversion rate on third downs, ranked 20th overall. Indianapolis leads the league with a 51 percent conversion rate on third downs. Last season Seattle was at 31 percent on third down conversions, third-worst in the league.
For the Dallas game, Seattle ran the ball 14 times on first down and threw the ball 12 times on first down, but that statistic is skewed because Seattle was behind and had to throw in the second half.
“That’s something that we have to improve on, both in the run and the pass game,” Knapp said. “It will start with the development of the line staying together and the consistency there. That will help with both the run and pass game for us. And that will help us get better in those situations. But it was a big improvement from a week ago.”
The week before, against Arizona, Seattle finished at 28 percent (5 for 18) according to Knapp’s efficiency rating system. Three of the first seven plays on first down were runs.
For comparison’s sake, Seattle was 16-of-31 on first down against Jacksonville (41-0 win) for a 52 percent efficiency rating. Seattle ran the ball 21 times on first down and passed the ball 10 times on first down, including three touchdown passes on first down.
Here are the numbers in the rest of Seattle’s games: Indianapolis (7-of-26), Chicago (11-of-28), San Francisco (13-of-29) and St. Louis (21-of-32).
Compiling all of those numbers together, Seattle has a 44 percent efficiency rate on first down (83-of-190).
As far as run/pass ratio on first down, Seattle has 91 rushing plays (3.48 average yards per rush) and 107 passing plays (6.32 average yards per passing play). Last season, the Seahawks ran 187 rushing plays (4.08 average yards per rush) and 215 passing plays (5.76 average yards per passing play).
Looking at the numbers, you would think Seattle should throw more on first down because of the chance to gain more yardage. However, while throwing the ball provides more reward, there’s also more risk involved, in terms of turning the ball over, either by a tipped ball or interception, a sack and forced fumble, or by turning the ball over by fumbling once it’s completed, or an incomplete pass, which leaves you with second-and-10.
So the coaching staff has to weigh all of those factors, along with game planning against the defense they are facing each week and making sure they know what Seattle’s tendencies are in terms of what plays they’ve ran in the past on first down.
Here’s my analysis…
If we go max-protect on ever down with 3 WR sets, and if Hass can maintain a 34% completion rate and always throw the ball for at least ten yards, we can drop the running game altogether, convert most of our third downs, and pretty much score on every possession. Yep…superbowl here we come!
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Great post Eric.
These dreadful numbers should not be a surprise to ANYONE who has been watching the Hawks this year. A lot of people rant about how predictable Holmgren’s play-calling had become (3rd and long FB draw). But I get so pissed when I successfully predict a run play on almost EVERY 1st down in the 1st half.
I get it, Knapp wants to establish the run. BUT WE DO NOT HAVE THE PERSONNEL TO DO SO. Holmgren knew that, and that’s why he admittedly used the PASS to setup the PASS. Knapp is just too stubborn and needs to get over himself before he loses all credibility.
Man I miss Holmgren.
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What credibility does Knapp still have? Oh, yeah…that’s right, he used to be a Raider.
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We have no running game.. Jones is terrible and our offensive line isn’t helping any.. Our head coach seems to think that firing random players is going to help. I don’t even know what the GM is thinking.. There’s a long list of things that need to be addressed on this team before they’re going to start winning games again and i have a feeling it’s going to take quite a bit of time.
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I agree…great post Eric. Too bad Seahawks nation is in hiding right now and not commenting on the work you did there. Though, it could be that some of us are writing goodbye letters to have ready just in case we lose at home to the kittens this week.
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Goodbye letters? What the hell are you talking about? Speak for yourself, but I’ve been around since the beginning and have no plans to go anywhere, ever.
Among the many things I find amazing about some of the posts here, the past several weeks, is the knocking of J. Jones. Mid-week he gets knock around and called “terrible” “a bum” “sucks” then on Sunday afternoons it’s all about “how hard he’s running” or his effort or some such. I would love to know if some of you actually watch the games. I’d be wiling to bet there is a significant number of people that post here that don’t bother watching. And the posts by those, reflect it. Jones is the very least of this teams issues.
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Yeah, J.J. certainly doesn’t suck and he’s not a bum. He may not be overly good, but he’s certainly not bad either. It’s the OL that’s killing him.
The Hawks are terrible on 1st down.
The Hawks are terrible on 2nd down.
The Hawks are terrible on 3rd down.
No matter what, they are still gonna be my team. It’s not my fault for being negative… it’s just the truth. Our offense sucks. I’m not sure how this can be disputed. I hope it changes, but it doesn’t look good.
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It’s no mystery or secret that it all begins with stability up front. There were signs of improvement last week and I expect that unit to build on that against the Lions.
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I like the fact that they cut some guys, it sets the tone. As a business manager I have used the same tactics, come into a new situation and immediately take someone out either by firing them or reassigning them. It makes people feel uncomfortable when changes like that happen. One of the easiest methods to get people to behave differently is to make things uncomfortable. Cutting random players indicates an understanding of leadership. It may or may not work, but the tactics are sound.
This is very interesting analysis Eric. From watching the games, I expected a higher ratio of runs on first down. I think you explain the numbers pretty well when you point out we were behind in many games so we were forced to throw. If we continue to see the same predictable plays called on first down, I expect we will see the same poor results no matter who is blocking. Our play calling was really creative in the first quarter of the last game, where did that play calling go?
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Same goes for the Holmgren thing. Last year all we heard was “bring on Mora” now its “bring back Holmgren” fair weather fans can kiss my a@#!!!!
I have watched this team since 1979 and I wont quit till I’m dead or Ken Behring moves them to LA (haha)
At least most of you can watch them. In Idaho they show whoever is leading in the west and this year its not Seattle.
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When the fans at Qwest booed after the ‘Hawks first possession in the second half of the Cardinal game, they were booing the playcalling pure and simple. Unless something changes, I would expect that to only increase.
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The Holmgren thing is interesting, I agree. After ’02 and ’04 there was a real groundswell to replace him. And you’re right, midway through last year many of the same people who are calling for him now wanted him to just quit because he was a “lame duck”. Good grief.
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Krieg,
You can watch the games live online at justin.tv
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What’s the chances of Mickey Loomis being brought back to Seattle to be GM? That man knows talent when he sees it. Both in coaching and player evaluation.
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That’s the second Loomis drop today. My thoughts are this; I don’t know how long the Saints have him under contract but why would they ever let him walk? He’s responsible for assembling that team, I can’t imagine him not staying to see it through. He’s come a long way from being apart of the worst decade in Seahawk’s history, that’s for sure. And after negotiating their franchise through the aftermath of Katrina so well, he’s got to be a king down there. His only tie to the NW anymore is that he’s from Eugene. The chances? Very, very slim.
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