Let's play the "handicap the remaining schedule" game
Posted By Ryan Divish on October 22, 2009 at 5:43 pm
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Earlier in the week, I was on the phone with Eric discussing (arguing) the Seahawks and their chances for the rest of the season, along with some stuff about covering for him while he's on furlough.
While I didn't think 2-4 was the end of the world, I didn't think it would be possible for the Seahawks to make the postseason.
Why?
The offensive line is being held together with duct tape, super glue and a guy named Damion McIntosh. And as Greg Knapp admitted the other day, it's limited them in what the they can do offensively, particularly in the run game.
Remember when Knapp said that the zone-blocking scheme would really start clicking about week six or seven. Well we are at week six, and Knapp admitted that prediction has now been pushed back.
"That was if the same starting five linemen were in control," Knapp said. "There's no way it's going to be like that now. It's going to take longer. Two starting centers, three left guards, four left tackles, maybe on our fifth in seven games? You can't develop the running game and/or the protection game consistently if you change the parts."
It also limits how much they can do offensively as well as using all of the playbook and game planning.
"As a game plan, you don't game plan as much in the run game. You get more specific, alright here's the core runs we're going to do and we're going to make those work. And not try to have too much because you have the parts changing. And from the protection standpoint, you gotta be sensitive to finding different ways to help the tackle or guard out. Either chip help, keep the tight end in, or moving the quarterback. "
That's not exactly inspiring.
Along those lines on the offensive line, some of you have asked about big Walt. My answer: No, I don't believe Walter Jones will play in a game this season.
Some may say: "What the hell do you know?"
Well, I know enough to not trust a quick recovery from microfracture surgery. And this whole talk of a "non-weight bearing bone" is ridiculous (as Hass would say). Absolutely ridiculous. As I said on the podcast a few weeks ago, the man weighs 350 pounds, name a bone in his legs that is not weight-bearing.
Eric was a little more pragmatic and logical - not surprising. Obviously, he believes the line has issues and that is major reason this team is in trouble, but then he also pointed to the remaining 10 games on the schedule. Realistically to have a chance the Hawks would need to go 9-7 to even have a slight chance. And with Hawks at 2-4, Eric said he didn't know if there were seven wins out there in the remaining 10 games to make it interesting, because six of those games are on the road, a place where the Seahawks have been just 5-13 since the 20o7 season.
He does have a point.
And so I told Eric that I would throw out a post about it, taking a look at the remaining 10 games and assessing their chances. Remember I'm doing this with an unbiased opinion. I'm not a Hawks fan. Sure it's better if they win, but I'm not a fan.
Somewhat frequent poster "Hellomouthbreathers" had a similar comment - breaking down the schedule - in one of the posts earlier in the week.
Feel free to breakdown the remaining 10 games with your thoughts on which ones they will win, and which ones they won't.
A few things ... I'm looking at this breakdown under the assumption that Hass stays healthy all season, Sims and Locklear come back (though I figure Locklear will get hurt again) and Lofa not being a factor since we haven't heard anything on his situation.
Nov. 1 -- at Dallas: The Cowboys are not good. They should have lost to the Chiefs, but Miles Austin bailed them out. Romo might have to get back together with Jessica Simpson to start playing better. DeMarcus Ware has a stress fracture in his foot, but even at 80 percent he still could cause problems for the line. It sounds as though Felix Jones will be healthy by then. Having Trufant back in some capacity should help, but I'm going Dallas 28-14.
Nov. 8 -- Detroit: It doesn't sound as though QB Matthew Stafford and his partially dislocated knee will be ready to play for that game. Too bad. I'd love to see a rookie QB deal with the 12th man. Instead, we'll get Daunte Culpepper, who is so large he appears to be with child. That's a win for the Hawks, 24-3.
TNT photo by Joe Barrentine
Nov. 15 -- at Arizona: Obviously, they can't start as bad as they did at home against the Cards. Or can they? Trufant should be healthy by now, but I don't know if it will make a difference. Right now, Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the game and he will hurt you regardless of who covers him. Sims and Locklear would ideally be back by then, so I think the protection should be better for Matt. But I don't know if the defense can stop the Cards offense. They haven't shown me that they can. Seattle will score points and it will be close, but I don't think they'll win. Cards, 31-27,
Nov. 22 -- at Minnesota: Back to back road games against two top teams. It's an early game in Central time. Perhaps the Hawks can hope that NBC doesn't like the game between the Eagles and Bears and use the flex scheduling and to have Brett Favre on in primetime. Regardless of time played, the Vikings look legit. Favre isn't the Favre we saw at the end of last season. Vikings 24-14
No. 29 -- at St. Louis: The Rams could easily be winless going into this game, unless they find a way to win at Detroit. How bad would it be to lose to a winless team? Like getting stuck in an elevator with Chris Berman and Stuart Scott bad. St. Louis will get better under Spagnulo, but not good enough to beat the Hawks. Seattle, 27-10
Dec. 6 -- San Francisco: Hmm, I don't know what to think here. The Niners could come into this game with a 7-4 record or a 5-6 record. I'm leaning toward the latter. I'm not a disciple or a believer in Rev. Singletary just yet. You grate on guys that hard, eventually they learn to tune it out. Yes, they are getting Crabtree, who will have about six games under his belt. But its still Shaun Hill throwing it to him. The big key will be if Frank Gore is healthy coming into that game. Still, the Hawks are at home. I'll give the Hawks, and more importantly the 12th man, the benefit of the doubt for this one game. Seattle 21-17
Dec. 13 -- at Houston: If Larry Fitzgerald is the most dominant receiver in football, Andre Johnson might be the second most dominant. The guy is a stud. The Texans also have a solid tight end in Owen Daniels. Matt Schaub can cut you up if you give him time, and so far we haven't seen Seattle establish a consistent pass rush or even a consistent scheme for getting pressure on the quarterback. The Texans can score points, but they can't stop anyone either. I don't know if the Hawks have the same troubles traveling south as they do traveling east. It will be an early start for them though. I'm going to be optimistic, the line will be healthy by then (no Walt though) and the Hawks win in a shootout, 34-31.
Dec. 20 -- at Tampa Bay: To describe the Bucs in a word: "sucktastic." They are flawed. I don't know who the hell they are starting at QB, and neither do they. And the disgusting thing is that they have a Super Bowl title and the Hawks don't. If the Bucs don't prevail in the "Toilet Bowl" game against Carolina, they will be winless coming into this game. They will also leave the game winless. I don't care if its on the east coast, what time it starts.
AP photo
That game could be played in China at 6 a.m. and the Seahawks should win. If they lose this game, then I will wear one of those goofy sweater vests Eric always wears to the final home game of the season. Hawks 34-13
Dec. 27-- at Green Bay: Hmm, let's think about the last time the Hawks played in Green Bay. I'll give you a second to swallow the vomit that came up from inside. I actually don't think the Packers have a great team, but I think they have a better team than the Hawks. Green Bay's defense has been better. Aaron Rodgers is solid, though with the punishment he's taking this season, he could be out with injury by this game. Still, Seattle has lost their last three games at Lambeau so I don't see it changing. Packers 28-17
Jan. 3 -- Tennessee: I guarantee you the Titans won't be winless coming into this game. They won't be winless after next week. And they also have St. Louis and Buffalo on their schedule. I truly expect that Vince Young will be Tennessee's starting QB by then. But the guy who scares me is Chris Johnson. The guy is lightning fast. He's faster than Frank Gore and we saw what he did to the Hawks. So hopefully Lofa is playing by then and Jordan Babineax's understanding of basic geometry, particularly proper angles has improved, or else Johnson will be running wild. Still, the Titans quit last week against the Patriots, who's to say they won't have quit on the season by then. Seattle, 27-21
So let's see that's 6-4 over those 10 games, which would leave them 8-8 at the end of the season and out of the postseason. Suddenly that crapfest last week against the Cardinals is looking pretty costly. Also, I was pretty optimistic with the wins over the Niners at home and Houston on the road - both games that could easily go the other way.
Obviously, much can change. Injuries to the Hawks or to their opponents could greatly change things. If Kurt Warner goes down and Matt Leinart goes in, that can change things not only for that one game but for the whole NFC West.
Anyway, it was just something I thought I would kind of take a look at. Feel free to critique my predictions (try to be kind). Or offer your assessments and predictions. This is a community and I'm just as interested in reading your opinions.
This seems pretty realistic, though I'm not sure they'll beat SF.
There is one spin on this that makes Seattle's playoff outlook less bleak - they're only 1-1/2 games out of 1st place with 10 left to go. Which doesn't sound so bad. But of course they need to start winning, since it's unlikely SF and AZ will tank just for Seattle's sake.
I like it. I don't like 8-8, but I like the forecast of some of these games.
Seatle 31-27 inside the Cardinals air-conditioned shopping mall (er... stadium I mean) might be the biggest stretch. That's a tough place to win. But there is no doubt that will be Major Revenge Game.
I want to see Locklear and Sims back healthy for the Detroit game and I want to see them unleash the running game that has been dormant. Then I want to see the whole O line get a couple full weeks of practice together under their belts. Then I want to see our O linemen put Darnell Dockett's face in the astroturf and run over his back all day giving him some new ugly tattoos to wear.
"...Like getting stuck in an elevator with Chris Berman and Stuart Scott bad" Lol, brilliant.
"... Then I want to see our O linemen put Darnell Dockett's face in the astroturf and run over his back all day giving him some new ugly tattoos to wear." Hell yes! Please!
Really don't have much to add here other than I think that's a pretty safe projection. 8-8? That actually looks pretty good right now. I'm on to baseball and college football for the night before I end up with a high ankle sprain or some such.
I can't believe this. Forecasting wins and losses only sets you up for post-game depression. Predicting a win is hubris and arrogance. Predicting a loss is settings yourself up for a loss through self doubt and resignation. Advice constantly given to players applies to fans equally well - one game at a time.
Divish, don't upset Sully with your predictions.. Okay, that reference was a stretch, and probably not funny regardless..
I think we beat Dallas. Other than that, I agree. I have us at 9-7..
By the way, Mike Scioscia is soooo stupid.. Lackey has to be irate..
This is going to be a different team after the bye. Watch.
I haven't lost faith.
Divish, one thing I wanted to ask - if you don't see the Hawks making the playoffs, and Eric doesn't see the Hawks making the playoffs, then exactly what were you arguing about? And great job filling in. You got me to post on here in spite of this new comment setup which I just can't get used to..
Stuart Scott always looks like only half of his face is stoned..
And Duke, don't get me started on Darnell Dockett
Aaron Curry had a baby today.
And Stevos, Divish predicted the Hawks LOSE to the Cards..
That's all the random musings I can fit in my tiny head..
I like to drink kool-aid and think we can go 10-6... but 7-9 is probably more realistic with our OL...
Thing that sucks about our team is that besides the OL, we're pretty much built to win now (and good in most other positions). And if we use 2 first rounders for a LT and LG... then they won't be instant impact players, instead they will most likely play the role of the normal rookie who are like Max Unger (nothing special now, but you know they will be good). Which means by the time our young'ns on the OL are ready to rock, the rest of the team won't be ready for prime time. I guess that's what they call rebuilding. But I don't like the age of our QB in comparision to how old he'll be by the time our upcoming rookie offensive linemen are ready to play well.
snydro22 - Lol. I can't hear his name without thinking of you.
Just watched an amazing video of a pigeon playing kickoff coverage for the Raiders. Go to the PI site, click on special teams article.
The kool aid drinker in me predicts an 8-2 finish with a Super Bowl run in us:
@Dallas: Dallas isn’t very good and we’re going to heal up and get by with a W. Confidence booster #1.
Detroit: A terrible team at home. Another W. Confidence booster #2.
@Arizona: The whipping by AZ will be fresh in our minds. We will have a healthy left side to our OL. AZ will enter the game overconfident. We go in determined, and with the confidence of a 2 game win streak that has everyone thinking kool aid again, and we beat the Cards. Confidence booster #3.
@Minnesota: Probably not enough firepower to win at Minnesota, so this L will get chalked up with losing to a great team on the road. Will have beaten a good team on the road the week before, so the team won’t be too frustrated.
@St Louis: No better way to follow up a loss than to dominate an inferior team, which brings the team to 3 wins in 4 games.
San Fran: This will make it 4 wins in 5 games. I think the 12th man, along with remembering what happened at San Fran, will be enough to knock off the overrated 49ers. Gore isn’t going to run like that on us again with Mebane stuffing him.
@Houston: This will be a shootout that we win. Houston hasn’t figured out how to be consistent and we’ll take this one 31-28.
Tampa Bay: This team sucks. And we’re on a roll. Expect another home Jacksonville-like “contest.”
@Green Bay: We’ll probably lose this game. But if we lose at Houston, then I expect that we’ll win this game. I think we’ll go 1-1 against Houston/Green Bay. I just don’t have the exact combination down pat.
Tennessee: They will have long since packed in the season and we’ll finish our season on a high note. The Seahawks will have celebrated their 5th division title in 6 years after this game and we’ll host a game during the Wild Card weekend. We’ll follow in Arizona’s footsteps from last season and be ready to rock come play-off time. We will have also had the same OL operating for 10 weeks so the ZBS system will have had the same OL working together for about 9 weeks (Lock, Sims, Spencer, Unger, Willis).
The OL sucks guy in me predicts 3-7.
@Dallas: Our OL sucks and will doom our chances in Dallas. We'll make it competitive, but this is a Loss.
Detroit: Finally, a game even we can win. Win.
@Arizona: We may not get thrashed as bad in Phoenix. We may have a drastic improvement with Lock/Sims on the left side over tweedle dee and tweedle dumb (from Walt/Hutch in ’05 to Williams/Vallos in ’09). Still, two average OL won’t be enough for this team to beat AZ on the road. Loss.
@Minnesota: A physical team on its OL and DL. Jared Allen will have 10 sacks in this game and Kevin Williams will have 10 tackles behind the LOS. The Seahawk offense will gain negative yardage and Matt will be knocked out of the game. Loss.
@St Louis: The players will have given up and the Rams will be motivated to not go 0-16. The Seahawks lose in a close one, but, nonetheless, Lose.
San Fran: I think San Fran is overrated and I do think we’ll make this close, but it’s another Loss.
@Houston: At this point Houston is playing for a potential play-off spot and playing at home. They won’t take a bad Seahawks team lightly and will win 34-20. Loss.
Tampa Bay: This is a team so bad that even we can’t lose to them, but Michael Bennett will have 1 1/2 sacks in this game. Win.
@Green Bay: It may not be as ugly as the last time we visited Green Bay, but it won’t be much better either. Loss.
Tennessee: This game may be closer than some of us predict, but we’ll pull it out in the end. The reason is they will be starting Vince Young and we have Matt Hasselbeck. Win.
Anyone good at photoshop?
I want to edit a picture of the VMAC, and put like hundreds of handicapped parking spots out front, and then put a "Player Parking" sign out there.. I think it would be a great tribute to the last two years of Hawks football..
8-8 plus or minus 1 sounds reasonable. I'm hoping MacIntosh has a chip on his shoulder and can gives some good play on the left. and little health and continuity will go along to making a push
Bobby, the Koolaide drinker has one wrong:
Minnesota.- Julian Peterson decapitates Adrian Peterson on a lucky clothsline, (drawing the biggest fine in the history of the NFL), Farvre tweaks his knee, and ends up on vicodin again. By the time of the Hawks game, Favre is so looped on vicodin that he keeps passing to the guys in white jerseys, because the purple ones are just too ugly to look at. (what the hey, if you're going to fantasy land, may as well be all in)
I dont see the hawks out yet of playoff as if we can beat 49ers and Arizona and with the win against Lions, Titians, Bucs and can go to dallas new stadium and kick their arse than good it would put us in better position.
So right now let get 1st win of next month and get on winning streak..
Not related
I just checked out seahawks.com and saw this pic of Damian Mcintosh.........................holy cow!!! How many happy meals did this guy eat in his off-season!?!?!? no wonder Reed made him look bad--probably walking briskly around Dtosh to tally a sack!
http://www.seahawks.com/news/articles/article-1/Taking-the-fifth/be664096-ae48-497d-a964-42db0c42e55d
Variable, the thing about that picture that stands out to me, is he doesn't have a boot around his foot.
The guy's a decade-long vet, there's no way he's not an upgrade of Olay Williams.
BobbyK - sorry to say this but psychotic comes to mind.
@ Dallas
The Cowboys are in panic mode after getting smashed by the Falcons. The team begins to fall apart and lays an egg. Romo throws 3 picks and gets sacked 5 times. Hawks squeeze out a narrow victory, 13-9.
Detroit
Coming of a road win the Hawks are feeling confident, and playing a bad team is exactly what they need to build some momentum. Hawks crush the Lions. 24-0.
@Arizona
Back to back wins have the Hawks feeling pretty good against themselves. Sims and Locklear back gets Jones and the running game going for a decent game. Jones runs for 102 yards and 2 scores. Trufant puts a wicked hit on Fitzgerald and the Madden curse comes alive as a broken collarbone puts him on IR. Bolden and Breaston have decent games statistacally the the Hawks defense keeps them in front and allows only 1 big TD. Hawks win 31-28 in OT.
@Minnesota
The Hawks mostly healthy and on a roll, but the Vikings are just to good to lose. Minnesota wins to stay undefeated, 35-21.
@ St. Louis
The still winless Rams are the perfect remedy after a tough loss to a good team. Hawks win 38-6.
San Francisco
The 5-6 49ers come to Qwest Field for a crucial game against the 6-5 Hawks. Crabtree is held in check but Vernon Davis catches passes for 89 yards and 2 scores. The Hawks come away with a win on a last second field goal to win it 16-14
@Houston
Houstons offense is demoralized due to the lack of defense and Matt Shaub missing his 2nd game in a row after being injured in the game against the Colts. Hawks pick off Rex Grossman 3 times to blowout Houston 35-10.
@Tampa Bay
Josh Freeman takes over at QB in week 9 and leads the Buccaneers through 4 more losses before wins against Carolina and the Jets. Coming off back to back wins, they feel good about a chance to end the season on a positive note. The Hawks shatter their hopes and win 24-9.
@Green Bay
The 9-5 Hawks go into Lambeau against the 8-6 Packers. Green Bay is hungry after 3 straight losses and wins 27-17.
Tennessee
Chris Johnson is fast, the Hawks linebackers are faster. Tennessee's offensive line isn't enough for the Hawks defensive line and Chris Johnson is stuffed for only 46 yards on 16 carries. Hawks gain momentum for the playoffs and win, 37-10.
Final NFC West standings:
Arizona: 11-5
Seattle: 10-6
San Francisco: 7-8
St. Louis: 0-16
My end of season standing prediction would put us traveling to Arizona for the wildcard round of the playoffs. With Fitzgerald obviously still out being on IR, who knows what could happen...
question does anybody know if they plan on selling their detroit tickets? I am looking for 2..
Man, come on, this is SF's year. Enough with the kool-aid. Let's play the realism game sponsored by Tim Ruskell.
This team is 6-10 at best, and let's not overlook a Detroit squad led by Culpepper. Crucify me afterward if you must, but the Seahawks aren't a good football team.
guy who thinks he knows it all, dude. Dude. Dude. Wow. It's sad to see how many folks still consider this a team that play in the league. We're praying right now for wins over Detroit and St. Louis at their place.
I guess a perennial playoff fanbase has to be let down hard.
We're lucky to win 2 more games this season.
Deal with reality, hop on the Holmgren bandwagon. Demand a change now, or become the Mariners.
10-6 and we win the division losing only to Minny and Houston. I know what your thinking, How the heck could we possibly win in Dallas and Arizona? My answer to that question is simply I dont know.
I just dont like giving up hope so early in the season. Maybe Lock and Sims come back healthy, Maybe the running game will show some life, Maybe Trufant and Hill coming back will help, Maybe Hawthorne will play better then Lofa, Maybe Curry can figure out gap control. Maybe this defense will understand that blitzing more often is better then sitting in god awful zones most of the time. They have lots of athletes who need to run around instead of standing flat foot.
Call me crazy but Im not giving up hope. I have invested to much in this team to just shut the door and wait until 2010.
Hawks 10-6
Cards 9-7
9'ers 8-8
Can we get an update on Locklear? Is it just one of the "serious" high ankle sprains? I'm guessing because he is 300+ he doesn't heal as fast as Josh Wilson. It'll be like 7 weeks as of the Dallas game.
Picking scores is silly. You can lock in the losses, Dallas, Arizona, Minnesota, San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay. You can lock in one win, St. Louis. You are left with three "toss ups" in Tampa, Detroit, and Tennessee. If you are lucky, you get 6 wins, TOTAL, most likely, you win two and TOTAL 4, again.
Syndro22- LOL- thanks for the humor!
The problem is, the Seahawk player injuries "aren't that bad" so the state refused to issue the players plaquards, now requiring them to park further away and walk.
If there were any UCLA Bruins on the team, they would be able to use one- as it would be left over from college.
Honestly 8-8 may feel refreshing after these last four weeks. I think its a fitting record for this group of inconsistent football players. Plus- it'll leave us wanting more after the season.
The Seahawks are hardly the Mariners.
The Mariners had a terrible season despite injuries in 2008.
Losing is the norm for the Mariners.
Name the last time the Mariners won four consecutive division titles.
Mariner fans actually see their mascot on the field.
I bring my kids to Mariner games.
Seahawks fans know the score.
Seahawks do not encourage "bad dancing"
You don't gotta love these guys.
Deion Branch is much nicer than Erik Bedard.
Seriously- Hawks are much better off than the Mariners. But I need to give the Mariners credit for becoming more like the Seahawks.
Maybe Hass should keep a bag of cheese burgers on the sideline and everytime Macintosh keeps the end off his back he can have one.
At 6' 4" 320 with 9 years and 111 starts under his belt we just need the guy to do his job. not be a pro-bowler. give Matt some time and we can move the ball on Dallas.
Soggybuc, I like the cheese burger idea. lol!
I think McIntosh can get it done as long as Sims is playing next to him, and as long as the Seahawks can score early so they don't have to keep passing all day.
Why is it silly to pick scores. It isn't any more silly than projecting wins or losses a month from now. It's all silly on some level.
Reshumate,
Locklear is out of the walking boot. But he hasn't done much in terms of onfield drills on the side, while Rob Sims has. But I'd be surprised if Locklear was ready for the Cowboys game. He's not the fastest healer apparently. Apparently it wasn't a non-weight bearing sprain.
Snydro,
I've been patiently waiting for a comment from you. Eric and I argue about many things. We argued about the reasons the Hawks weren't going to make the playoffs. We argued why he thinks sweater vest are a good idea. We argued about his alma mater Mount Tahoma being winless. We argued about whether Kate Hudson should get the Yankees Team MVP award. Basically it's like PTI at the TNT.
I've been called arrogant and obnoxious and stubborn, and those were the compliments.
With all of this positive group think, you guys will be let down hard. I would rather predict a 6-10 season and be surprised than predict a 10-6 season and be ridiculed for drinking the kool-aid.
I think we win the rest of our home games, and shock them in Minn with the annual BF stinker game. Bret throws 3 picks and fumbles once. Hawks manage to convert 2 of the turn overs for 6 points. Hawks win 6-0.
Lofa celebrates the shut-out from the sidelines, and says into the camera, "I told you so". The hawks nation is warm and fuzzy thinking the team will be better going forward. Monday morning and the news that Deion Branch has contusion on his upper thigh and has sprained his left middle finger. Deion is done for the season. Our $6M 3rd best wideout sits for the rest of the season.
Don't forget that Adrian Peterson, as great as he is, has a terrible fumbling problem. We could steal a turnover or two in that game.
All I can keep thinking is if Lock and Sims are able to play against Dallas we could have a reasonable shot in that game. I must be missing something, it seems to me like 2 months to recover from an ankle sprain is a bit excessive. And I wish someone would explain to me the difference between a regular ankle sprain and the"high ankle sprain".
Not sure why, but have heard that it is quicker to recover from a broken ankle than to get over a high ankle sprain.
klm,
Ask any ortho...it's better to break your ankle than sprain it...recovery is much faster...A broken ankle you stay off of...a sprained one you keep trying to "fix"...and high ankle sprains are worse than the regular kind...
Sober ankle sprains are much worse than high ankle sprains, but that has more to do with being able to feel the pain..
Ryan,
All-in-all, a pretty good analysis, in my opinion. I'd probably argue the Houston outcome, with the Hawks losing unfortunately.
One small thing, though. As far as the Tampa Bay game is concerned , I'll agree with your assessment and outcome, but, unless the NFL has changed their mind and my season tickets are wrong, THE GAME IS IN SEATTLE!