Seahawks Insider

Hawks third in NFC race

Post by News Tribune Staff on Nov. 14, 2006 at 2:16 pm with 22 Comments »
November 14, 2006 2:16 pm

The Seahawks trail Chicago and New Orleans in the NFC playoff seedings. Sixth-seeded Atlanta would visit Seattle for a wild-card game if the current NFC standings held through season’s end. This is something we’ll monitor more closely as we get deeper into the second half of the season.


The league has an outstanding Web site tracking conference playoff seedings. The Seahawks were inadvertently listed as the fourth seed when I checked the site most recently, but I have tipped them off to the error and they should have corrected information posted shortly. I’ve got a sortable version here.


New Orleans, Seattle and the Giants are tied with 6-3 records. New Orleans prevails in the three-way tiebreaker, thanks to a superior conference record (5-1 vs. 5-2 for both Seattle and New York). Seattle then edges out the Giants for the third seed based on head-to-head record (Seahawks 42, Giants 30).

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Leave a comment Comments → 22
  1. All that work on my dissertation wasted ;-)

  2. New Orleans still has Cinn and Carolina at home and road games at Atlanta, Dallas, and NY (Giants). If they come out of that with less than 3 losses I’d be surprised.

  3. escapedkent says:

    I knew there was a reason I wasn’t drinking the Saints Kool-AID. Let’s fight for that first round BYE!

  4. HawkFromDay1 says:

    So I have read Mangini and Payton for coach of the (mid)year and NOTHING from Holmgren (even though I would agree with the Payton choice; what a job that guy has done).

    Mike Holmgren has been making this team win with one hand tied behind his play calling chart. I guess I feel like a little love ought to go Coach’s way.

  5. chuck_easton says:

    Actually Holmgren and the team are getting recognition. To paraphrase Shannon Sharpe’s latest column “How does Seattle keep winning without their two best players?”

    It would seem that the mainstream media isn’t so much of the opinion that the Seahawks are overrated as they are amazed at what has been accomplished here.

    Another quote from Peter King “something tells me this team is going to be tough come January”.

  6. Snugglson says:

    if anybody told me we would lose shaun for 6 games and matt for 3, and still be 6-3 id have thought they were insane.

  7. bobbyk03 says:

    I was getting frustrated when I kept hearing how the o-line was going to improve and then each Sunday they basically were terrible.

    We’ve been seeing those results the last two weeks and it’s nice to see. Granted, the Lambs aren’t a great running defense but I do like that Raiders defense we ran on (they can’t help it their offense couldn’t score a TD against my jv football team).

  8. Think about this: Denver, who has had arguably one of the best running games in recent history, was held to 63 yards by the Raiders.

  9. ashleykeltner says:

    Today, my eight year old son asked me what teams need to lose in order to help out the Hawks. He also asked me what teams have been shut down by the same teams the Hawks have beaten.
    Think you read his mind.
    Thanks Mike.
    Added note: My eight year old loves to read what you post each day. Which also means that he gets his time in for his ‘at home’ reading requirement for school. He calls it a definite bonus…. so, double thanks.
    (Wife of Ash Keltner)

  10. kjknight3 says:

    So, it’s four hours since you posted about the error on NFL.com, and it’s still wrong.

  11. For those who are interested, an affiliate of the Football Outsiders has run an analysis of NFL “playoff odds,” running a simulation 15,000 times to see what the likely seedings are. The conclusion: it will be very, very hard to unseat the Bears for the #1 seed in the NFC. The Seahawks will likely retain the #3 seed (the Giants, believe it or not, have the inside track for the #2 seed).

    http://www.mharrisdev.com/playoff_odds/

    (And I’m not endorsing the analysis, just passing along the info…)

  12. Mike, cbssportsline was the first site I noticed with the correct seeding information (Sunday PM). I just went to their NFL page and typed in “playoff seeding” in the search function. It was correct while the NFL site still showed Seattle at 4. Just another resource! I also think Seattle could secure the #2 if we continue to improve and get our starters back. NO has a tough road and the NFC East and South are going to beat each other up as the schedule continues. Thanks for all of your hard work! GO HAWKS!

  13. jerseymike25 says:

    I think based on the tie-breaking procedures for 3 teams, the #4 seed is currently correct:

    This hinges on one thing…I’ll get to in a second. Here is the tie-breaker for 3 wild-card teams (which is effectively seeding like we’re doing here anyway):

    Three or More Clubs
    (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
    1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
    2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
    3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
    5. Strength of victory.
    6. Strength of schedule.
    7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    9. Best net points in conference games.
    10. Best net points in all games.
    11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
    12. Coin toss

  14. jerseymike25 says:

    Continuing: IF because they’re not in the same divisions, THEN step #1 (apply division rules) gets tossed, THEN proceed to #2:

    2. Head-to-head sweep: Sea hasn’t played NO. NYG hasn’t played NO.

    3. W-L in Conference. NO is 5-1, Sea and NYG are 5-2. NO is the #3 seed.

    IF we’re to then proceed:
    4. W-L-T in common games: NYG and Sea have 1 common opponent, Chi. Both are 0-1 against Chi.

    5. Strength of Victory: NYG .426, Sea .352..

    So – if for some reason the head-to-head doesn’t matter, it’s based on the Strength of Victory here.

    Although I think you’re correct: Once NO is awarded #3, we go to a two-team tiebreak that includes head-to-head, and therefore Sea should be #3.

    My head hurts either way.

  15. Tie-breaking procedures don’t continue forward once one team has either won over the other two or been eliminated from the process…they go back to the beginning . So, once NO gets the #2 spot, you go back to the beginning for SEA vs NYG. We win head-to-head.

    The NFL.com site appears to be incomplete. The head-to-head information for SEA & NYG wasn’t entered (cf DEN vs BAL), so it appears that all three teams are tied and the web-service has resorted to sorting by alphabet.

    The CBS Sportsline site has the accurate data, with the explanations. They just don’t show all the stats that NFL.com does.

    NFL.com: http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference
    Sportsline: http://sportsline.com/nfl/playoffrace

  16. rramstad says:

    Ditto Regis.

    When you break a three way tie, once you get a winner, you stop, assign a seed to the winner, and start over with the two remaining teams.

    Sando, maybe something to add?

    “where there is no offseason, and three way tie breaking rules are always restarted from the top as head to head once one team is assigned the top seed”

  17. rramstad says:

    http://www.mharrisdev.com/playoff_odds/

    is just total garbage. The simulations they’ve ran indicate that we’ll win a total of 9.5 games this year. Conversely the Giants have a projected win of 10.2. I dunno, but to me, this becomes quite silly and stupid. Winning a half game isn’t possible. If both the Seahawks and Giants win 10 games, the Seahawks go in at a higher seed, period, because of the head to head tiebreaker.

    People, take that site with a HUGE grain of salt… I may be a homer, but it’s pretty clear that the team we have today is different than the one that relatively recently lost two games in a row… there’s a LONG way to go before the end of the season.

  18. seahawkfan says:

    I think you look back many years the Seahawks did not make the playoffs because of a similar 3-way tie in which Cincinnati DID go even though the Seahawks had beat them because of the weird 3-way conference tie breaker. This is a lttle different in that that SEA and NYG (who SEA beat) would remain (after NO takes the 2nd spot) and compete for the 3rd spot. So is it Head to Head OR strength of schedule?
    Or maybe the East Coast does not know that the NYG lost to SEA. The NYG’s loss to SEA was covered up and not reported in any newspaper in any city east of the Rocky Mountains.

  19. Forget about the Giants. They have lost a whole bunch of players due to injuries. Frankly, after losing so many players(thanks to Bears), I don’t even think they’ll make it to the playoff.

  20. Giants look like they are getting ready to fade away. Philly is the best team in the East. I think they’ll run down the NFC East title.

    NO is going to lose a bunch of games in the second half, Carolina may even win that division, so we have breathing room in the NFC for the 2 seed.

    As for the Bears, I’m still waiting for Rexie to return to form (as he has done a few times), and then we’ll catch them too.

    Let’s just win all our games and then it doesn’t matter, we get the 1 or 2 seed. At Denver is the toughest game we have left, and they are beatable (as long as we don’t even bother to throw at Champ).

  21. Giants look like they are getting ready to fade away. Philly is the best team in the East. I think they’ll run down the NFC East title.

    NO is going to lose a bunch of games in the second half, Carolina may even win that division, so we have breathing room in the NFC for the 2 seed.

    As for the Bears, I’m still waiting for Rexie to return to form (as he has done a few times), and then we’ll catch them too.

    Let’s just win all our games and then it doesn’t matter, we get the 1 or 2 seed. At Denver is the toughest game we have left, and they are beatable (as long as we don’t even bother to throw at Champ).

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