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Computer rankings: Top SPSL South contender? Not who you think

Post by Todd Milles / The News Tribune on Oct. 16, 2012 at 10:25 am with 5 Comments »
October 16, 2012 12:15 pm
Curtis tailback EJ Deveaux and the Vikings have moved up to No. 5 in the Class 4A computer rankings, highest among the SPSL South schools.

Last year, The News Tribune began a partnership with Scott Odiorne, also known as the “Score Czar,” to publish computer-based high school football rankings.

Here is how he explains the process:

The computer rankings take the outcome of each game and endeavors to capsulize the data created by the final score by placing a numerical rating on how each team did compared to the caliber of their opponent.

The computer takes Points Allowed divided by Points For, multiplied by strength of schedule to determine each team rating.

Week 3 is the earliest computer rankings can be calculated.

CLASS 4A

1. Kentwood 0.833
2. Camas 0.945
3. Bellarmine Prep 1.056
4. Skyline 1.087
5. Curtis 1.294
6. Federal Way 1.409
7. Skyview 1.504
8. Mead 1.639
9. Auburn 1.653
10. Union 1.723

Others: Bothell 1.770, Gonzaga Prep 1.833, Lake Stevens 1.882, Newport of Bellevue 1.894, Eastmont 1.937.

CLASS 3A

1. Bellevue 0.331
2. Mount Si 0.949
3. Ferndale 1.351
4. Peninsula 1.375
5. Kennedy Catholic 1.567
6. North Thurston 1.592
7. Meadowdale 1.598
8. Eastside Catholic 1.611
9. Marysville-Pilchuck 1.784
10. Timberline 2.022

Others: O’Dea 2.052, Kamiakin 2.156, Shelton 2.189, Oak Harbor 2.200, Glacier Peak 2.255.

CLASS 2A

1. Othello 0.728
2. Mark Morris 1.195
3. Lynden 1.345
4. Capital 1.415
5. Lakewood 1.464
6. Prosser 1.699
7. West Valley of Spokane 2.033
8. Ephrata 2.039
9. Tumwater 2.160
10. East Valley of Yakima 2.184

Others: Lindbergh 2.230, East Valley of Spokane 2.406, Ridgefield 2.480, Bremerton 2.584, Sumner 2.827.

CLASS 1A

1. Cashmere 0.331
2. Royal 0.677
3. Hoquiam 0.762
4. La Center 0.930
5. Montesano 1.417
6. Woodland 1.693
7. Toledo 1.870
8. Eatonville 1.880
9. King’s 1.915
10. Mount Baker 2.116

Others: Quincy 2.124, Freeman 2.129, Charles Wright Academy 2.267, Cle Elum/Roslyn 2.418, Chewelah 2.623.

CLASS 2B

1. Morton/White Pass 0.483
2. Raymond 1.392
3. Willapa Valley 1.875
4. La Conner 2.001
5. DeSales 2.037

Others: Waitsburg-Prescott 2.059, Lind-Ritzville/Sprague 2.139, Darrington 2.365, Tri-Cities Prep 2.621, Concrete 2.652.

CLASS 1B

1. Liberty Christian 0.328
2. Cusick 0.767
3. Neah Bay 0.903
4. Mary M. Knight 1.172
5. Lummi 1.148

Others: Almira/Coulee-Hartline 1.536, Touchet 1.620, Lopez 1.887, Odessa-Harrington 1.923, Lacrosse-Washtucna 2.357.

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Leave a comment Comments → 5
  1. Sideshow_Bill says:

    A couple of these are hard to swallow, like Skyline not being #1.

    For another computer rankings site see https://sites.google.com/site/thurstoncountyhsfootball.

  2. piekaboo2 says:

    I like the TNT rankings better. Curtis ahead of Federal Way, and GK not even on the radar, when GK beat Curtis head to head? I guess you can’t agrue with points for and points against, but GK should probably be ahead of Curtis. Being a Rogers fan, can’t wait to see what the Rams can do against Curtis this week. Glad it’s at home.

  3. LanceWhite says:

    With all due respect, Sideshow Bill, no way is Lakes #9 in the state. You must be ranking them based on past reputation. They are not top 10 this year.

  4. ScoreCzar says:

    Computer likes Curtis because of their D/O ratio. They have scored 227 & only allowed 64. In contrast GK is 256/196.

    Admittedly, Curtis’ Strength of Schedule (SOS) is a fairly soft 4.59 while GK’s SOS is reflected with a more difficult 3.52. The week 2 head-to-head is perplexing when you consider the data. But, I doubt GK would want to face Curtis again.

    I said it last week & I’ll say it again, GK is a quality team. They just need to stop allowing points.

    Federal Way is the more interesting case here. They close the season with 2 tough match-ups. I get a sense the computer has them a bit undervalued. Their Points Allowed have most likely come after the starters have been pulled. But, that’s an assumption and the computer makes no assumptions.

    Their Overall Power Rating (OPR) will be impacted over the next couple weeks. It’s just a case of which direction it goes. Head-to-heads with other low OPR’s usually brings about movement & provides additional clarity. In other words…stay tuned folks, it’s gettin’ good!

  5. Sideshow_Bill says:

    @LanceWhite: I don’t rank any of them, the computer algorithm does. Yes, they’re coming off their worst performance of the year, but I see three losses to quality 4A schools and a win against the #3 4A school. Don’t hate on Lakes because they didn’t play Clover Park, Wilson, and Foss in non-league this year. You know you’d take them heads up against almost anyone ranked behind them.

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