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A human and a computer predict the football state quarterfinals

Post by Doug Pacey / The News Tribune on Nov. 16, 2011 at 2:25 pm with No Comments »
November 17, 2011 10:10 am

The picks are getting tougher to make. I’ll be honest, of the eight remaining teams in Class 4A, you can make solid cases for any that they’ll win the state championship.

In Class 3A, all eyes will be on the Bellevue-Lakes game — we’ll be doing a live chat of the game here on the blog, starting at 7 p.m. on Friday.

Here are the picks:

CLASS 4A
Computer: Woodinville 23, Union 14
Pacey: Woodinville 19, Union 17

Computer:Central Valley 30, Skyline 29
Pacey:Skyline 27, Central Valley 14

Computer:Bellarmine Prep 30, Skyview 27
Pacey: Bellarmine Prep 31, Skyview 28
Computer says: Similar teams with explosive Offenses, Prep’s Defense will be the difference, but it won’t be easy.

Computer:Eastlake 28, Lake Stevens 26
Pacey: Eastlake 21, Lake Stevens 17

CLASS 3A
Computer: Lakes 34, Bellevue 25
Pacey: Lakes 27, Bellevue 24
Computer says: One of the most anticipated games in the State of Washington in quite some time. Both programs are nationally recognized and both teams have again had great seasons. In past years, Bellevue has always shot to the top of the ScoreCzar rankings and remained there all year. Lakes’ numbers always have to overcome their high Strength-of-Schedule (easy schedule) before their Overall Power Rating begins to lower. It normally comes down to these two teams. There is more to the 3A story this year, but we will discuss that later. This is about this game. So, why should we expect something different this year from these two teams?

Bellevue has scored 447 and has allowed 127 points this year. These are very typical Bellevue numbers. Bellevue has also played a much harder schedule with an SOS value of 2.67. Lakes conversely has a 3.60 SOS. We see this every year and there are no surprises so far.

Last year at this point in the season Lakes had scored 466 and allowed 148 points. This year, Lakes has scored an amazing 583. But the real difference is that the Lancers have only allowed 96 points all year. The difference this year from last year when Bellevue beat Lakes 35-7 is Lakes’ defense. The question may sound absurb, but is appropriate, is will Bellevue be able to match the Lancers offense.

Computer: Kennewick 24, Kamiakin 19
Pacey:Kamiakin 20, Kennewick 14

Computer:Camas 28, Meadowdale 22
Pacey: Camas 32, Meadowdale 21

Computer: O’Dea 27, Capital 22
Pacey: Capital 27, O’Dea 20

I’m going to stop there, but the computer has made predictions for the 2A, 1A and 2B quarterfinals, and there’s analysis on other 4A and 3A games, too. You can view them here.

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