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Football: A human and a computer predict the state playoffs

Post by Doug Pacey / The News Tribune on Nov. 8, 2011 at 3:42 pm with 2 Comments »
November 10, 2011 1:04 pm

Here’s our final installment of the “A human and a computer predict…” series — at least until the basketball state playoffs.

What have we learned?

We’re not so unalike, humans and computers. The computer has played it straight, picking by the numbers. The human (me) makes some judgment calls (some might say poor judgment) and factors in history, injuries and playoff pedigrees.

And where did that get us? The human and computer agree on what teams should meet in the 3A and 1A title games. In 4A, the computer has Woodinville beating Bellarmine Prep, while I have Ferris topping Bellarmine Prep in a rematch of last year’s semifinals.

Here are the picks, and the computer adds analysis on what to expect in the postseason.

(Note: We’ll add Class 2A predictions when Tuesday’s play-in games are completed.)

Think you can do better picking winners? Enter our contest and win a prize.

CLASS 4A FOOTBALL STATE PLAYOFFS
FIRST ROUND
COMPUTER PACEY
Kentlake over Union Kentlake over Union
Woodinville over Bethel Woodinville over Bethel
Ferris over Central Valley Ferris over Central Valley
Skyline over Mead Mead over Skyline
Bellarmine over Ed-Woodway Bellarmine over Ed-Woodway
Skyview over Kentwood Skyview over Kentwood
Lake Stevens over Olympia Olympia over Lake Stevens
Eastlake over Federal Way Eastlake over Federal Way
QUARTERFINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Woodinville over Kentlake Woodinville over Kentlake
Skyline over Ferris Ferris over Mead
Bellarmine Prep over Skyview Bellarmine Prep over Skyview
Eastlake over Lake Stevens Eastlake over Olympia
SEMIFINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Woodinville over Skyline Ferris over Woodinville
Bellarmine Prep over Eastlake Bellarmine Prep over Eastlake
FINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Woodinville over Bellarmine Prep Ferris over Bellarmine Prep
CLASS 3A FOOTBALL STATE PLAYOFFS
FIRST ROUND
COMPUTER PACEY
Bellevue over Eastside Catholic Bellevue over Eastside Catholic
Lakes over Mountain View Lakes over Mountain View
Kennewick over Southridge Kennewick over Southridge
Kamiakin over Seattle Prep Kamiakin over Seattle Prep
Meadowdale over Mercer Island Mercer Island over Meadowdale
Camas over Kennedy Catholic Camas over Kennedy Catholic
Capital over Hazen Capital over Hazen
O’Dea over Mount Si O’Dea over Mount Si
QUARTERFINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Lakes over Bellevue Lakes over Bellevue
Kennewick over Kamiakin Kamiakin over Kennewick
Camas over Meadowdale Camas over Mercer Island
O’Dea over Capital Capital over O’Dea
SEMIFINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Lakes over Kennewick Lakes over Kamiakin
Camas over O’Dea Camas over Capital
FINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Camas over Lakes Lakes over Camas
CLASS 1A FOOTBALL STATE PLAYOFFS
FIRST ROUND
COMPUTER PACEY
Royal over Colville Royal over Colville
Cle Elum/Roslyn over Chelan Chelan over Cle Elum/Roslyn
Connell over Freeman Connell over Freeman
Cashmere over Zillah Cashmere over Zillah
Hoquiam over King’s King’s over Hoquiam
Montesano over CPC Montesano over CPC
Meridian over Toledo Meridian over Toledo
Cascade Chrstn. over LaCenter Cascade Chrstn. Over La Center
QUARTERFINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Cle Elum/Roslyn over Royal Chelan over Royal
Cashmere over Connell Cashmere over Connell
Montesano over Hoquiam Montesano over Hoquiam
Cascade Chrstn. over Meridian Cascade Chrstn. over Meridian
SEMIFINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Cashmere over Cle Elum/Roslyn Cashmere over Chelan
Montesano over Cascade Chrstn. Montesano over Cascade Chrstn.
FINALS
COMPUTER PACEY
Montesano over Cashmere Cashmere over Montesano
CLASS 2A FOOTBALL STATE PLAYOFFS      
 
FIRST ROUND      
COMPUTER     PACEY
Lynden over North Thurston     Lynden over North Thurston
Franklin Pierce over Interlake     Interlake over Franklin Pierce
Sequim over W.F. West     Sequim over W.F. West
Lakewood over Lindbergh     Lakewood over Lindbergh
Othello over Steilacoom     Othello over Steilacoom
ATM over Tumwater     Tumwater over ATM
Prosser over Spo. West Valley     Prosser over Spo. West Valley
Deer Park over Ellensburg     Deer Park over Ellensburg
 
QUARTERFINALS      
COMPUTER     PACEY
Lynden over FP     Lynden over Interlake
Lakewood over Sequim     Lakewood over Sequim
Othello over ATM     Tumwater over Othello
Prosser over Deer Park     Prosser over Deer Park
 
SEMIFINALS      
COMPUTER     PACEY
Lynden over Lakewood     Lynden over Lakewood
Othello over Prosser     Tumwater over Prosser
 
FINALS      
COMPUTER     PACEY
Othello over Lynden     Lynden over Tumwater

From the computer, which you can follow on Twitter (@ScoreCzar) and visit the computer’s website, not coincidentally named ScoreCzar.com:

What’s a little madness without an upset? The numbers are not aligning correctly for Olympia and I see potential trouble brewing for the Bears as they travel to Lake Stevens. The ScoreCzar system is calling this a 26-25 Viking victory and has put Olympia on upset alert.

Sticking in 4A, I hope everyone remembers back to Week 5 when this crazy computer guy said that Woodinville was the No. 1 team in the state. How far have we all come with this team? Woodinville is ranked just a tad bit higher by the humans now than it was to begin the season, which was unranked. Woodinville wins the 4A state title and you heard it first from the ScoreCzar back in late September.

Class 3A is a little dicey, but I’m the numbers guy so I will report what the numbers say and leave the editorial stuff for the “experts.” The numbers say Lakes beats Bellevue in the quarterfinals, but then runs into a re-match of last year’s double-overtime playoff victory against Camas. Lakes has scored 555 points to this point. Camas has allowed 69. Something has to give. When in doubt, always remember the old axiom about “defense wins championships.” Camas wins 3A in a state-title stunner.

(2A predictions will be posted when Tuesday’s play-in games are completed)

All year I have been adding an extra ‘T’ to Montesano, somehow that got by my spell-check (I’m a computer, after all). So, to the fine people of Montesano I apologize, but I have a suggestion that may avoid future confusion? How about re-naming your town MontesanDo. No T, but one heck of a “D” in Monte. Twenty-two points allowed all year is about as crazy as Woodinville ranked No. 1 in Week 5. Monte cruises to a victory over a great, but mortal Cashmere by a wide margin.

Disappointed to see Adna playing Naselle so early in the 2B playoffs. Just one of many games the WIAA has set up to frustrate and annoy the fans and penalize good teams. The coaches, players and their families are all cheated out of what would otherwise be a compelling and fan friendly tourney. With all that said, nobody is is coming within a mile of White Pass/Morton for the State title. They’ve only allowed 14 points all year and that was to Napavine in week 3. It’s been all zero’s after that. WPM is head & shoulders above everyone else in this classification.

Hope everyone gets out and supports their team this playoff season. It’s the best $8 you’ll ever spend and the quality of play will not disappoint. Remember to delete your deleted files and always clear your cache, your computer will dislike you a little less.

Leave a comment Comments → 2
  1. LakesLancers says:

    Here are my predictions for the Class 3A Football State Playoffs.

    FIRST ROUND

    Bellevue over Eastside Catholic
    Lakes over Mountain View
    Kennewick over Southridge
    Kamiakin over Seattle Prep
    Meadowdale over Mercer Island
    Camas over Kennedy Catholic
    Capital over Hazen
    O’Dea over Mount Si

    QUARTERFINALS

    Lakes over Bellevue
    Kennewick over Kamiakin
    Camas over Meadowdale
    O’Dea over Capital

    SEMIFINALS

    Lakes over Kennewick
    Camas over O’Dea

    FINALS

    Lakes over Camas

  2. LakesLancers says:

    Okay, I understand my predictions are insignificant. The winner is the winner and “that’s the fact Jack.”

    My curiosity begins with the national rankings. If Bellevue loses to Lakes, will Bellevue tumble from national recognition or will Lakes replace Bellevue as the region’s best team with top 25 national high school football recognition?

    Bellevue remains in the USA Today Super 25 at No. 13;
    in the MaxPreps Xcellent 25, Bellevue is No. 21; in the ESPNHS Powerade Fab 50 and Bellevue is the No. 15th team in the country. In the RivalsHigh 100, Bellevue moved up, from 17 up to 14. Lakes also makes a nice jump, in the RivalsHigh 100, going from 22 to 18 and creating a potential national showdown in the quarterfinals should both teams advance.

    Will a defeat of Bellevue mean less recognition for Pacific Northwest high school football?

    Only time will tell.

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