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Football: A human and a computer predict winners of state play-in games

Post by Doug Pacey / The News Tribune on Nov. 3, 2011 at 11:04 am with 3 Comments »
November 3, 2011 11:04 am

Last week, I selected five games for the computer to predict and it nailed them all, including Woodinville beating Eastlake — the “Predictitator” called for a final score 18-16 and it ended up 17-14. Can’t get much better than that.

So, I selected a few playoff games to predict this week. The “Predictitator” and I only differ on one outcome — the computer likes Kennedy Catholic and I’m going with Lincoln. Next week, the computer and I will go through the entire state playoff bracket, NCAA Tournament-style.

Also, I’ll be running a playoff pick’em contest with prizes for the winners again this season. I’ll try and get the brackets posted by Sunday evening, Monday morning at the latest.

With that, here are the Week 10 picks:

Predictitator: Kentlake 35, Mariner 21
Pacey: Kentlake 32, Mariner 17

Predictitator: Bethel 34, Bothell 31
Pacey: Bethel 41, Bothell 34
Computer says: This is a case of a team with a higher Overall Power Rating (OPR) beating the lower OPR. This is not a highly successful situation for the Predictitator, but I’m sticking with what the computer says and calling for this upset.

Again, this is a good opportunity to distinguish between OPR and Predictitator. OPR is the team rating, but is only part of the Predictitator equation. Normally, the lower OPR team wins, however there are some occasions where this is not the case. This game is one of those situations where the Predictitator says that one factor overrides the OPR. Looking at the team profiles, I’m thinking it’s Bethel’s prolific offense that makes the difference in this game.

This situation also occurred in two games two weeks ago — Eisenhower-Richland and Capital-Timberline. In both cases, the higher OPR beat the lower OPR and the Predictitator called both of these upsets. But it has also missed on several occasions, too. So, this will be a great test for this formula.

Predictitator: Kentwood 23, Gig Harbor 18
Pacey: Kentwood 27, Gig Harbor 23

Predictitator: Skyview 33, Issaquah 28
Pacey: Skyview 27, Issaquah 21

Predictitator: Olympia 31, Puyallup 24
Pacey: Olympia 27, Puyallup 20

Predictitator: Seattle Prep 33, Timberline 23
Pacey: Seattle Prep 31, Timberline 23

Predictitator: Kennedy Catholic 36, Lincoln 23
Pacey: Lincoln 34, Kennedy Catholic 30

Predictitator: Peninsula 32, Mount Si 20
Pacey: Peninsula 28, Mount Si 20

Predictitator: White River 32, Interlake 23
Pacey: White River 33, Interlake 31
Computer says: Cautious of this pick since Interlake hasn’t played a 2A team all year, so their OPR is a bit hard to read.

Predictitator: Kingston 28, Steilacoom 21
Pacey: Steilacoom 19, Kingston 14

Predictitator: King’s 28, Orting 23
Pacey: King’s 37, Orting 28

Bonus game
Alabama 27, LSU 23

Leave a comment Comments → 3
  1. fbergford says:

    Doug — good stuff bud! Now I’m curious to see what the computer thinks of all the play in games in all classifications!

  2. rickstate76 says:

    Lake Stevens
    Thomas Jefferson***UPSET ALERT OVER Eastlake
    Federal Way
    Bellarmine Prep.

  3. LakesLancers says:

    Who doesn’t love this? This is an exceptional challenge, man against machine, the battles to overcome the future of A.I. Let’s go Doug … represent mankind.

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