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Football: A human and computer predict Week 9 results

Post by Doug Pacey / The News Tribune on Oct. 27, 2011 at 11:21 am with 2 Comments »
October 27, 2011 11:21 am

After the computer did so well in predicting the outcome of last week’s Olympia-Bellarmine Prep contest — it predicted a 16-13 BP win and the final was 15-14 — I asked Scott Odiorne, who compiles the computer rankings we’ve been running this season, to run some projections for games in Week 9.

I added my picks, too.

Here’s the lineup:

Computer: No. 5 Woodinville 18, No. 1 Eastlake 16
Pacey: No. 1 Eastlake 31, No. 5 Woodinville 21

Computer: Central Valley 29, Lewis & Clark 25
Pacey: Lewis & Clark 20, Central Valley 17

Computer: Skyview 29, Union 28
Pacey: Skyview 33, Union 27

Computer: No. 4 North Thurston 29, No. 7 W.F. West 22
Pacey: No. 4 North Thurston 23, No. 7 W.F. West 19

Computer: No. 6 Meadowdale 37, No. 9 Oak Harbor 30 (OT)
Pacey: No. 6 Meadowdale 40, No. 9 Oak Harbor 31

I asked Scott if the computer actually predicted the game would go into overtime and he said the computer spit out a final score of Meadowdale 29.84, Oak Harbor 29.50, so he rounded up both to 30 points. Then he pointed out that each teams’ strength of schedule is nearly identical and the point differential for each team.

“I’m giving Meadowdale the edge in overtime — they’re the better team (.88) vs. (1.45) OPR against the same SOS,” Odiorne wrote. “But Oak Harbor scored nearly 100 more points and allowed nearly twice as much, but still not very many points. I can see this ending up in a tie – it will be close, for sure.”

Leave a comment Comments → 2
  1. LakesLancers says:

    Yeah, I like this kind of party! Let’s see whom has the best game analyst skills … Doug vs Computerized Predictions, CP.

  2. commoncents says:

    Guess the computer knows best. Woodinville 17 Eastlake 14

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