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Week 8: Class 4A postseason projections

Post by Doug Pacey / The News Tribune on Oct. 18, 2009 at 11:56 am with 4 Comments »
October 20, 2009 12:01 pm

After seven weeks of football, the postseason picture is beginning to clear. Below you will find a league-by-league look at the playoff scenarios for South Sound leagues, along with predicted matchups for ALL of the Week 10 state play-in games and what the first round of the state playoffs might look like.

Just like we did last season, we will update our predictions each week, as the postseason draws near.

We’ve provided enough information so that if you don’t agree with our predictions and want to see how the playoff bracket might look with different league finishes, you should be able to do that fairly easily.

NARROWS LEAGUE
Playoff berths:
Five
Predicted qualifiers: South Kitsap, Olympia, Central Kitsap, Wilson, Gig Harbor
Lowdown: Let’s assume that South Kitsap will win out and take the league’s No. 1 seed. Olympia is a favorite to win its remaining two games, as well. Wilson can lay claim to the No. 3 seed if it can beat Central Kitsap in Week 9. If the Cougars win that meeting, barring any other upsets, they will be the No. 3 team and Wilson No. 4. Gig Harbor can secure the final playoff berth with wins over Mount Tahoma and Shelton. Foss can get in by beating Olympia in two weeks and the Tides lose one of their remaining games.

SPSL NORTH
Playoff berths:
Four
Predicted qualifiers: Auburn, Kentridge, Federal Way, Kentwood
Lowdown: Auburn seems to be a lock for the league’s No. 1 seed. Kentridge can all but sew up the No. 2 berth by beating Kentwood this week. If Federal Way and the Conquerors tie in the standings, the Eagles have the tie-breaker because of their win over Kentwood last week.

SPSL SOUTH
Playoff berths:
Four
Predicted qualifiers: Curtis, Bethel, Rogers, Graham-Kapowsin
Lowdown: Curtis clinched the No. 1 seed with its win over Spanaway Lake on Friday. Bethel can claim the No. 2 seed by finishing ahead or tied with Rogers and Graham-Kapowsin because the Braves beat both teams. Rogers took the inside track on the No. 3 seed by beating G-K on Saturday. Spanaway Lake still has an outside chance of crashing this party.

Week 10 State Play-in Games
(The winners of these games advance to the state playoffs. Here’s the official WIAA state bracket.

The following games are listed in order of how they will be placed on the WIAA state bracket. For instance, if Rogers wins Game 1 and Auburn wins Game 2, Rogers will play at Auburn in the first round of the state playoffs.

Game 1: SPSL South No. 4 Graham-Kapowsin at WesCo North No. 1 Marysville-Pilchuck
Winner is placed on bracket as District 1 No. 2

Game 2: WesCo South No. 3 Cascade at SPSL North No. 1 Auburn
Winner is placed on bracket as District 3 No. 2

Game 3: WesCo North No. 2 Lake Stevens at SPSL South No. 2 Bethel
Winner is placed on bracket as District 3 No. 4

Game 4: SPSL North No. 4 Kentwood/Narrows No. 5 Gig Harbor at GSHL No. 1 Skyview
Winner is placed on bracket as District 4 No. 1

The next four games are part of the Columbia Basin Big 9/Greater Spokane League crossovers. The winners of these individual games are not slotted into a place on the state bracket. For instance, if CBBN No. 5 Moses Lake beats Eisenhower and is the lowest seeded team to win one of these four games, it will receive the No. 4 seed from District 5/6/8.
Game 5: CBBN No. 5 Walla Walla at CBBN No. 1 Eisenhower
If CBBN No. 1 wins, it receives the No. 1 seed from District 5/6/8

Game 6: CBBN No. 4 Southridge at GSL No. 1 Central Valley
Placement on state bracket depends on outcome of other games in CBBN/GSL crossover

Game 7: GSL No. 3 Ferris at CBBN No. 2 Wenatchee
Placement on state bracket depends on outcome of other games in CBBN/GSL crossover

Game 8: CBBN No. 3 Kamiakin at GSL No. 2 Gonzaga Prep
Placement on state bracket depends on outcome of other games in CBBN/GSL crossover

Game 9: SPSL North No. 3 Federal Way at KingCo No. 2 Bothell
Winner is placed on bracket as District 2 No. 2

Game 10: GSHL No. 2 Kelso at Narrows No. 1 South Kitsap
Winner is placed on bracket as District 3 No. 3

Game 11: Narrows No. 3 Central Kitsap at WesCo South No. 2 Kamiak
Winner is placed on bracket as District 1 No. 3

Game 12: Narrows No. 4 Wilson at SPSL South No. 1 Curtis
Winner is placed on bracket as District 3 No. 1

Game 13: KingCo No. 3 Inglemoor at SPSL North No. 2 Kentridge
Winner is placed on bracket as District s No. 5

Game 14: KingCo No. 4 Issaquah at WesCo South No. 1 Jackson
Winner is placed on bracket as District 1 No. 1

Game 15: SPSL South No. 3 Rogers at Narrows No. 2 Olympia
Winner is placed on bracket as District 3 No. 6

Game 16: WesCo North No. 3 Arlington at KingCo No. 1 Skyline
Winner is placed on bracket as District 2 No. 1

Leave a comment Comments → 4
  1. fusillade says:

    Even with a Tahoma win over Auburn I have difficulty understanding just how the Bears can claim that final SPSL North playoff seed. If the Bears win against Auburn and Graham-Kapowsin they will still have losses against Federal Way, Kentlake, Kentridge, and Kentwood – teams who are ahead of the Bears in the SPSL North rankings. Auburn and Kentridge have already sewn up winning conference and overall records, so Tahoma can not challenge them for a playoff spot. Still, a win against Auburn would bring Tahoma’s conference record to 4-4, and a win in their final week would improve their overall record to 5-4, yet the Bears still find themselves behind the eight ball created by last weeks loss to Kentlake. Even if the Bears win out and Federal Way and Kentwood lose their final two conference games (which would give Tahoma, Federal Way and Kentwood identical 4-4 conference /5-4 overall records) both Federal Way and Kentwood hold their respective tiebreaker over Tahoma, as each handed the Bears a defeat in their head-to-head match-ups. Unless there is some odd loophole that I am unaware of it appears that the only team currently outside of the playoff picture in the SPSL North that has a chance to fight their way in is Kentlake.

  2. That’s right. My mistake. Here’s how a potential three-way tie between Federal Way, Kentright and Kentwood will be determined:

    If Kentwood beats Kentridge and the three teams end the season with 6-2 league records, the tie-breaker will come down to point differential in the games played between those tied teams.

    FW 24 (FW +3), KW 21 (KW -3)
    KR 21 (KR +8), FW 13 (FW -8)

    Current point differential
    KR = +8
    KW = -3
    FW = -5

    So, if Kentwood beats Kentridge by 6 or more points, Kentwood wins the tie-breaker for second seed and Kentridge and Federal Way revert to head-to-head, which Kentridge wins, for the 3 and 4 seeds.

    If Kentwood beats Kentridge by +5 or less, or Kentridge beats Kentwood, then Kentridge wins the No. 2 seed and Federal Way and Kentwood revert to head-to-head, which Federal Way wins, for the 3 and 4 seeds.

  3. fusillade says:

    Thanks Doug for clearing that up.

    Best regards,

    Fusillade

  4. joe_capitano says:

    In Game 16 you’ve penned in Arlington. However, Stanwood is actually a half-game ahead of them at 3-2 in the WESCO North (both are 3-4 overall). This week Stanwood has the division bye while Arlington travels to Snohomish (1-3, 3-4). Assuming the Eagles take care of business, they and the Spartans will meet in Week 9 for the “Stilly Cup” at Larson Stadium with the 3-seed – and the projected date with Skyline – at stake.

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