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Tag: Polling


KING 5 poll shows McKenna up 42%-to-41% over Inslee

New polling for KING 5 television shows Republican Rob McKenna’s lead over Democrat Jay Inslee is just one percentage point – or well within the margin of error. In the poll – described here – McKenna got 42 percent, Inslee got 41 percent and 16 percent were undecided.

SurveyUSA polled 630 voters and its error margin is plus/minus 4 percent. The findings were parallel to the Elway Poll of mid-June that found McKenna up just 42 percent-to-40 percent, also within the margin of error.

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Big three prognosticators – Charlie Cook, Nate Silver and Larry Sabato – call U.S. House for GOP, Senate for Dems

This isn’t good news for U.S. Rep. Norm Dicks, but three of the most-respected campaign analysts think the Republicans will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives after Tuesday’s election.

None even think it will be close.

And that means that Dicks likely will become the ranking minority member of the House Appropriations Committee instead of its chairman.

All three – Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia – see the Democrats retaining the Senate.

Cook, also affiliated with the National Journal, thinks the Republicans will gain 50-60 seats in the House and six-to-eight in the Senate. The GOP needs to gain 39 House seats for a majority and 10 Senate seats.

Cook calls the Washington Senate race a toss-up but thinks Murray will retain the seat for a fourth term. Read more »


New poll: Washington Senate race ‘could go either way’

WASHINGTON – The Washington state Senate race is going down to the wire, with a McClatchy-Marist poll released Friday showing incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray maintaining a 1 percentage point lead over Republican challenger Dino Rossi among likely voters.

Murray was ahead 49-48 in the poll taken Tuesday through Thursday, a difference within the poll’s margin of error.

“The bottom line is this is a race that could go either way,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., which conducted the survey.

A McClatchy-Marist poll two weeks ago also showed Murray with a 1 percentage point lead – an edge she’s maintained even as independent groups have flooded Washington state with nearly $18.3 million in advertising.
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538’s Nate Silver: Washington state is the new Florida

By that the political statistician means it is the state that is most likely to provide the tipping point for either Democrats or Republicans winning the U.S. Senate next week.

Nate Silver created the influential website fivethirtyeight.com which provides analysis of politics via analysis of political polls. He has now taken the site to the New York Times and this article can be found here.

Which states are most likely to make the difference between Republicans controlling the Senate by exactly one seat, and falling exactly one seat short of doing so?

Unless there is significant movement in another

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Statistician on why Washington is weird

Writing on his New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog, number cruncher Nate Silver has an interesting take on the wildly divergent poll numbers coming out of our state on the nationally watched Patty Murray/Dino Rossi race.

As anyone who reads Political Buzz day-to-day knows, it’s hard to get a bead on where this race stand. Several recent polls have indicated a statistical dead heat, but then comes yesterday’s Elway poll showing Murray up 15 points. It’s not unusual for polls to vary on certain races, but Silver points out that pollsters have been perennially off the mark in predicting election day outcomes for Washington state.

What gives? Silver has no definitive answers, but some educated guesses:

One reason could be that it is one of two states, along with Oregon, where voting takes place almost entirely by mail. This can wreak havoc with traditional likely voter models, which often ask questions like, “Have you voted in the election precinct before?” and “Do you know where people in neighborhood go to vote?” — questions that are nonsensical in the context of an election that takes place by post. Also — probably because of mail balloting — turnout in Washington and Oregon has generally been very high, so targets that might work well in other states could fail there. Finally, since many voters in Washington return their ballots well in advance of Election Day, a pollster surveying the race close to Election Day will encounter another type of voter — those who claim to have voted already — which traditional likely voter models are not well designed to handle.

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Pew Center poll tests current buzz words. “Family values” – good; “Militia” – not so good

Politicians don’t use words and phrases lightly. Often they’ve been test-marketed with voters to make sure that they resonate as intended.

The Pew Center for the People and the Press lets the rest of us in on the secret with this poll that measures the effectiveness of current phrases.

“Family values” is viewed positively by 89 percent of those polled while “militia” is viewed positively by just 21 percent.

Wonder why Republicans like to refer to Democrats as socialists? The poll showed that 59 percent of voters view that term negatively.

Wonder why Democrats like to refer to themselves

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