That was the basic question underlying a presentation given by city finance director Bob Biles to Tacoma City Council members at today’s noon study session.
Part of I-1033, the Tim Eyman-sponsored statewide measure on this year’s ballot, seeks to cap revenues deposited into city and county spending plans based on changes in population and inflation. Any additional revenues would be put into a “Lower Property Taxes Account” used to reduce property taxes.
The long and short of Biles’ presentation? It depends.
“I cannot possibly forecast what our (population and inflation) growth will be,” Biles said. “But again, I think you see the impacts … could be fairly significant.”
In a powerpoint presentation, Biles provided estimated ranges based on historic growth trends of the measure’s potential “six-year impact” to the city’s budgets. The estimates ranged from losing about $10 million in revenues over that span during low-growth periods (+2.5 percent), to losses of $161 million during periods of high-growth (+6 percent).
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