Political Buzz

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Category: polling

Feb.
26th

Poll: Voters split on more taxes for schools

 

A poll released today finds voters split on whether Washington state should raise taxes to fully fund schools.

The poll was done by a Portland firm, DHM Research, and commissioned by advocates of school funding and accountability in the Excellent Schools Now coalition. Pollsters talked to 500 voters in January and found 45 percent of voters backing higher funding for K-12 schools even if it requires a tax increase.

The poll also surveyed 500 teachers in December and found 70 percent of them agreed with the same question.

It has been more than a year since the state Supreme

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Feb.
4th

Gov. Jay Inslee says extending temporary taxes is not a tax increase. What do voters think?

They are split, according to a new survey by veteran pollster Stuart Elway, but they narrowly disagree with Inslee.

The Washington Realtors, which opposes extending the 2010 “temporary” increase in business-and-occupation tax rates, commissioned the poll question that was asked Jan. 24-31. Its finding: 49 percent said it would be a tax increase to extend the higher rates. Another 42 percent said it would not, while 9 percent had no opinion.

Elway said the group viewing it as a tax increase make up a statistically-significant plurality of voters, but not a majority.

“We’re as split on these questions as we always seem to

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Oct.
18th

UW Poll: Obama, R-74 winning; Inslee-McKenna is toss-up

Voters in the Evergreen State are backing President Obama and same-sex marriage by wide margins, while giving Democrat Jay Inslee a very slight edge over Republican Rob McKenna in the Washington governor’s race, according to the latest Washington Poll released today.

Go here for the full results, which carry a strong-blue tint on most issues except for the clear support for limiting taxes and allowing charter schools.

The poll release this afternoon comes after Secretary of State Sam Reed said he expects turnout in the high-stakes election to reach 81 percent, a bit less than in 2008 but stronger than average.

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July
20th

KING 5 poll shows McKenna up 42%-to-41% over Inslee

New polling for KING 5 television shows Republican Rob McKenna’s lead over Democrat Jay Inslee is just one percentage point – or well within the margin of error. In the poll – described here – McKenna got 42 percent, Inslee got 41 percent and 16 percent were undecided.

SurveyUSA polled 630 voters and its error margin is plus/minus 4 percent. The findings were parallel to the Elway Poll of mid-June that found McKenna up just 42 percent-to-40 percent, also within the margin of error.

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June
22nd

Poll: Governor race now tied at 38-38

Yet another new poll says the Washington governor’s race is a toss-up. The latest, a product of the Gallatin Public Affairs and GS Strategy Group, shows Democrat Jay Inslee has pulled into a 38 percent to 38 percent tie with Republican Rob McKenna with more than four  months to go before the Nov. 6 election.

The finding is on page 26  of the larger poll on the Washington economy that questioned 400 likely voters statewide and had an error margin of plus/minus 4.9 percent. It also found President Obama easily beating Republican Mitt Romney by a 50-35 margin.

The dead-heat finding  in the governor’s race also shows Inslee winning by just 4 points in the Seattle metro area and is closer than the  Elway Poll released earlier this week. According to the Seattle Times, Elway found  Inslee has narrowed a 9-point McKenna advantage and now trails the GOP frontrunner by just 2 percentage points.

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Nov.
9th

Pierce County voter turnout reaches 49 percent

Pierce County’s election turnout reached 49 percent of registered voters with more mail ballots expected Thursday.

Elections supervisor Mary Johnson-Hall said she is hopeful the turnout for Tuesday’s election will reach the 50-percent mark that she and auditor Julie Anderson predicted.

Even at 49 percent, Pierce County’s turnout – typically the worst among Washington counties – could exceed the statewide turnout for the first time in recent years. Secretary of State Sam Reed predicted a 47 percent statewide turnout.

Johnson-Hall said 203,624 ballots had been received through today out of 415,852 registered voters.

“I think it’s great,” Johnson-Hall said.

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Nov.
1st

UPDATE: Washington Poll takes first look at 2012 – McKenna leads Inslee; Obama leads both Perry and Romney

UPDATE: Pollster and professor Matt Barreto takes issue with my characterization that the spread between Rob McKenna and Jay Inslee is not statistically significant. I applied the margin of error – 3.2 percent – to both candidates’ results. That is, I add that number to Inslee’s result and subtract it from McKenna’s. That is the common practice to determine whether the difference between the two in the poll is significant.

But it is not the only way and Barreto maintains that I also need to look at the probability of the poll.

“The poll results reveal a 92.3 probability that

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