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SurveyUSA/KING-TV poll gives early (very early) lead to Rob McKenna in possible (pretty likely) governor matchup with Jay Inslee

Post by Peter Callaghan / The News Tribune on May 2, 2011 at 1:59 pm |
May 2, 2011 3:59 pm

Survey USA has conducted a poll for KING-TV on the 2012 race for governor in Washington state that gives Attorney General Rob McKenna a statistically significant lead over U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee.

While those are considered the most-likely candidates for the Republicans and Democrats, the poll also asked

Rob McKenna

Jay Inslee

voters about possible matchups between incumbent Gov. Chris Gregoire and McKenna, Gregoire vs. U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert and Reichert vs. Inslee.

The automated poll interviewed 700 registered voters on April 27 and included cell-phone-only voters. Here are the numbers.

Jay Inslee (D): 41
Rob McKenna (R): 48
undecided: 11

Jay Inslee (D): 44
Dave Reichert (R): 46
Undecided: 10

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 40
Rob McKenna (R): 52
Undecided: 7

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 44
Dave Reichert (R): 48
Undecided: 8

Here is how SurveyUSA summarizes the results:

In every match-up, Democrats lead among voters age 65+, who are the most reliable voters, and Democrats trail among the youngest voters, who are the least reliable. This survey is not, by design, of “likely” voters, since the actual candidates who will be on the 2012 ballot are today unknown, but a survey of “registered” voters. The poll was conducted at a time when a Democrat is in the White House and Americans are sour on his performance and sour on the direction of the country. This unhappiness at the national level may or may not have dampened enthusiasm for Democrats at the state and local level. Governor Gregoire’s job approval, in SurveyUSA’s most recent poll released 04/20/11, is at 37%. Her job dis-approval is at 61%, which is a net “Minus 24″ job approval.

Gregoire is not considered a candidate for re-election but she has not announced her plans. Reichert told KING Robert Mak Sunday that he was interested in a higher office. Here is the link in which the 8th District congressman says he is leaving the door open to either a run for governor or a run for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Democrat Maria Cantwell.

Reichert says just because some Republicans have thrown support behind McKenna, that’s not a reason to rule out his options.

“I’ve had calls, I’ve said, ‘Look, I know Rob’s the guy, and I think Rob would be an outstanding candidate,'” Reichert told Mak. “But he is so bright and so well-liked, I think he has a great chance of winning. But, no one knows.”

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