Sure, he begins with a major qualifier, that looking this far ahead is just slightly better than quesswork.
“It is ridiculously premature to issue hard projections,” wrote University of Virginia political scientist (and frequently quoted pundit) Larry Sabato on his webpage. “Any analyst who would call these ratings “predictions” should just open up a palm-reading service.”
But since poli-junkies love this stuff despite that, Sabato has updated his “descriptive short-term forecasts” for the U.S. Senate races in 2012.
Here’s how he described the Washington race:
“Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is an automatic favorite for reelection to a third term. She doesn’t have a particularly high profile, nor does she have an intense popular following. But she’s a Democrat and an incumbent in a state that isn’t inclined to support Republicans in most circumstances. President Obama should win handily in Washington, as he did in 2008, and that ought to be enough for Cantwell.”
And overall, Sabato says this:
“… the GOP can obviously win the Senate in theory—but it is far too soon to say whether theory will become reality. Just remember how many Senate surprises there were in the primaries and general election of 2010.”