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Big three prognosticators – Charlie Cook, Nate Silver and Larry Sabato – call U.S. House for GOP, Senate for Dems

Post by Peter Callaghan / The News Tribune on Nov. 1, 2010 at 2:33 pm |
November 1, 2010 4:25 pm

This isn’t good news for U.S. Rep. Norm Dicks, but three of the most-respected campaign analysts think the Republicans will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives after Tuesday’s election.

None even think it will be close.

And that means that Dicks likely will become the ranking minority member of the House Appropriations Committee instead of its chairman.

All three – Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia – see the Democrats retaining the Senate.

Cook, also affiliated with the National Journal, thinks the Republicans will gain 50-60 seats in the House and six-to-eight in the Senate. The GOP needs to gain 39 House seats for a majority and 10 Senate seats.

Cook calls the Washington Senate race a toss-up but thinks Murray will retain the seat for a fourth term.

In the House, he rates the 1st District where Jay Inslee is the Democratic incumbent as Solid D, the 2nd where Rick Larson is the Democratic Incumbent as a Toss-up, the 3rd where Democrat Brian Baird is retiring as Lean R, the 4th where Doc Hastings is the Republican incumbent as Solid R, the 5th where Cathy McMorris-Rodgers is the Republican incumbent as Solid R, the 6th where Dicks in the Democratic incumbent as Solid D, the 7th where Jim McDermott is the Democratic incumbent as Solid D, the 8th where Dave Reichert is the Republican incumbent as Likely R and the 9th where Adam Smith is the Democratic incumbent as Likely D.

The New York Times calls the Patty Murray-Dino Rossi race a toss-up but statistician Silver gives the edge to Murray, though he has recently increased the odds that Rossi will win.

Here are the New York Times’ House ratings with Silver’s probability of that outcome stated as a percentage:
1st, Solid D (100)
2nd, Leaning D (72)
3rd, Leaning R (83)
4th, Solid R (100)
5th, Solid R (100)
6th, Solid D (97)
7th, Solid D (100)
8th, Leaning R (95)
9th, Solid D (93)

Sabato’s Crystal Ball sees Republicans gaining eight seats in the Senate and 55 in the House. He calls the U.S. Senate race in Washington lean D.

Here are Sabato’s House predictions:

1st, Safe D
2nd, Lean D
3rd, Lean R
4th, Safe R
5th, Safe R
6th, Safe D
7th, Safe D
8th, Lean R
9th, Safe D

Dicks’ timing could be better. In 1994 when Republicans swept into control of the House, Dicks lost his first chance to become chairman of an Appropriations Committee subcomittee.

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