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Better news for Patty Murray in recent polls

Post by Jordan Schrader / The News Tribune on Sep. 15, 2010 at 4:51 pm with 9 Comments »
September 15, 2010 4:51 pm

A CNN/Time poll out today has Sen. Patty Murray up by nine points over Dino Rossi.

The results match the spread between the candidates in an Elway Poll released this week. Republicans complained Elway’s results have consistently shown Murray with more support than other pollsters and shouldn’t be trusted, but the CNN poll makes them less of an outlier.

Real Clear Politics’ average of recent polls shows Murray up by just 2 points. That includes two August polls by Rasmussen Reports and SurveyUSA that had Rossi up by 3 and 7 points respectively.

CNN/Time: Murray 53 Rossi 44.

Elway: Murray 50 Rossi 41.

Rasmussen: Murray 47 Rossi 50 (with leaners)

SurveyUSA: Murray 45 Rossi 52.

Leave a comment Comments → 9
  1. tjnpuyallup says:

    Didn’t Elway have Gregoire winning by 12 points on election day of 2004 and Darcy Burner beating Reichert in 2008?

    Check out the New York Times, Nate Silvers 358 blog… 358 does a statistical analysis (nothing subjective) part of which is an average of available polling, adjusted for the traditional error rate and partisan leanings of those polls. 358 statistical analysis gives Rossi a 54% chance of winning and list WA as Lean Republican.

  2. tjnpuyallup says:

    Forgive my sleep deprivation enduced dyslexia…

    The blog is actually called 538…

    Here is the link to all the U.S. Forecast. They have also completed forecasting for the House races since the last time I checked in here…


  3. tjnpuyallup says:

    One final note on the CNN/Times poll… I did a quick review of it… Of the 1340 Reg. Voters and 906 Likely Voters, it give no demographic breakdown (e.g. what % live in Metro Seattle vs E. WA vs. W. WA?, what % self ID Dem or GOP?, income/education levels?) It only reports polling results for those demos, it doesn’t give the raw numbers.

    Also it fails to describe the methodology of the polling or determination of what is a “Likely Voter”… Which Murray loses 3 points with that group…

    Without the demographic breakdown info for validation the poll is basically irrelevant. They might as well have polled the Murray and Rossi families and asked who they are voting for.

    Dear TNT… Either find better pollling or at least learn how to validate before you publicize them.

  4. boater246 says:

    the 538 poll was done two weeks ago – results change, up and down for both candidates. chastizing the TNT for the failure of the CNN to give as much data in an initial news release as you would like is blaming the messenger. Check out the PDF version – it did give some demographic info, westside/eastside results. Also, result I saw said Murray 53% of likely voters, Rossi 47%…how is that NOT the result you said. Each campaign has much to do to win the election, but don’t count out Murray because of earlier polls.

  5. pen_mightier_than_sword says:

    Remember voters, Rossi hates unions, wants to slash government jobs, is against laws mandating equal pay for women for equal work as men and is the only national candidate to advocate repealing Wall Street reform!

    Patty saved Boeing on the Tanker deal and is very union friendly.

  6. Proconsul8 says:

    Naturally polls don’t disclose the number of likely voters that, when contacted, expressed their pent-up anger at incumbents, polling, political elites, RINO’s, Marxidems, etc. and told the pollster to shove it. These are the folks that will speak in November on their ballots. Pay no attention to that pollster behind the curtain.

  7. Rasmussen polled me by “RoboPoll.” I felt the questions were terribly slanted to give Rossi an edge. They were also very anti-Obama in nature. I dutifully pressed 1 or 2 and sometimes as many as 5 choices and tried to make fair responses but it was difficult. After I hung up I felt “HAD” by the poll and would not suggest that voter’s give any credence to their announced results.

  8. newshound100 says:

    If you take a look at the Facebook numbers . Patty has 18 years to get to 17k Rossi got to 42k in 4 months . Somehow those polls just don’t add up.

  9. tjnpuyallup says:

    @boater… I think you missed the point.

    1) 538 isn’t a poll… it’s a statistical analysis using standardized data across all races. Read their methodology section. They run simulations constantly. The posting you saw was 2 weeks old. It’s probably due for an update in the next few days. The daily snapshot is one thing (today Murray is up 72 to 28) A few days back, Rossi was 65 to 35. That isn’t a vote percentage… Its a statistical likely to win based on that days computer simulations.

    2) When “validating” a poll, that isn’t refering to HOW the demographics voted. It refers to WHO the demographics are. Example: Metro Seattle refers to King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties. It is roughly 50% of the population of WA. If a poll shows a sampling of 60% from Metro Seattle… the poll is demographically invalid. Much as WA white population is 75%. If a poll samples 90% whites it again is demographically invalid. The CNN/Times poll failed to show those breakouts (even in the PDF).

    3) I understand the TNT won’t ever show a 538 posting because McClatchy owns the Trib and Times Co. owns 538… why send biz to the enemy? I get that, but as our communities paper of record, the Trib has a responsibility to us to put forth accurate, valid and verified information. I’d argue none of these polls meet that standard.

    I’m bothered that these polls become the news story. Why don’t we have a news story analyzing the new issues videos at http://www.dinorossi.com?

    Why has the Trib not written a story on the WorkSource Employee in Vancouver who appears to have illegally used State resources to campaign for Murray? The info in the email she sent to a state veterans database suggest the Murray campaign may have possibly played a direct roll in the email being sent. We don’t know and no news agencies appears to care even though WorkSource acknowledges it did IN FACT happen.

    No investigative journalism… just meaningless poll results.

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