It’s not enough to ask voters how they might vote in an upcoming election. Pollsters then have to try to assess whether that person will actually bother to vote when the time comes.
In another of the free preview articles being posted by National Journal, election forecaster guru Charlie Cook peels back a massive Gallup Poll and finds that Democrats do best among voters who aren’t all that enthusiastic about voting this year. At the same time, they get savaged by those who describe themselves as very enthusiastic about voting.
Take a look here.