Talking WA politics.

The state's chief comedian also is a two-handed economist, or vice versa

Posted By Joe Turner on September 17, 2009 at 5:37 pm Bookmark and Share Share this

Arun Raha, chief economist for Washington state and director of the Economic Review and Revenue Forecast Council, provides his own comic relief during what otherwise would be a pretty dry presentation of the state of tax collections and other wonkish stuff.

Here are some examples, just from today's performance:
In March, when I came before you, everything was headed due south, and fears of a depression abounded. Yet, using our econometric model, a good intuitive understanding of the economy, but mostly our prized departmental magic 8-ball, we were able to predict, it turns out accurately, when the recession would trough.

Ah yes, the departmental magic 8-ball. ChangMook Sohn would never have admitted that he used such a device, but we in the Press Corps always suspected it.

Raha showed a touch of modesty, too, with this line:
Two weeks ago at the economic review I said that it appeared that the recession was over, and last week, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, echoed the same view. It puts our Forecast Council in very
exalted company, but it’s way too early to start popping the champagne corks.

OK. Modesty? Maybe not so much. But the guy's a hoot, especially for an economist.

Then, there was his shameless appeal for consumers to spend more money, just so his holiday spending forecast of 2 percent higher than last year's retail sales would turn out to be right!

Ladies and gentlemen, what I am essentially saying here is that if you
have a job from which you are unlikely to be laid off, or have been recently hired in a new job, and are not burdened by debt service payments, please consider this – if you spent $500 last year, 2% more means spending 10 extra dollars on a gift for a kid across town who may be down on their luck.

Two good things will come out of this: You will feel better about yourself,
and crucially, my forecast will turn out to be correct.

At the risk of sounding like this is pledge week on NPR,
could I please ask you spend that extra 10 bucks, or 20 – if you can.

Finally, there was this:
It might seem like it, but it is not the end of prosperity. Innovators
and entrepreneurs have always been an integral part of the economic story of this state. Following every recession, and sometimes even during it, we have seen small start ups, which are now household names.

I am eagerly waiting to see the new Washington business that will be born out of this recession. If anyone of you knows, please give me a tip, and I’ll get in on the ground floor, and retire early.

As for the 2-handed economist....I know a joke loses its punch if you have to explain it, especially if you get it wrong, as I'm probably about to do. But the two-handed economist is a reference to those who preface their remarks with both "On the one hand....and "On the other hand..." I can't remember if we're supposed to be looking for a one-handed economist or a two-handed one.


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