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Coming Sunday: Why Obama will win in 2012

Post by Cheryl Tucker on April 15, 2011 at 4:28 pm |
April 15, 2011 5:50 pm
President Barack Obama (The Associated Press)

In our Sunday opinion section, Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Dick Polman writes that there are seven reasons why – short of some unforeseen event – Barack Obama is pretty much a shoe-in for re-election.

Here’s one reason:

Incumbency: Care to guess how many Democratic presidents have been defeated for a second term in the last 120 years? A grand total of one. That fact alone has prompted Matthew Dowd, the Republican pollster for George W. Bush, to conclude that “the odds heavily favor President Obama.”

Incumbents are tough to beat, and this one will be raising and spending roughly $1 billion. Meanwhile, the nonpartisan Pew Research Center poll reports that 47 percent of Americans favor Obama’s re-election, while 37 percent want someone from the other party; his numbers are virtually identical to Bush’s numbers in April 2003 (the same point in the election calendar) — and way better than Bill Clinton’s numbers in March 1995.

Plus, Obama’s job-approval rating is higher than Ronald Reagan’s rating in April 1983. Bush, Clinton, and Reagan all won second terms.

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