It’s been an off-season aimed toward building a contending team in Seattle, and the Mariners have added Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee, Brandon League, Milton Bradley and Casey Kotchman.
In the process, they’ve improved the rotation and bullpen, given that pitching staff a solid defense – Kotchman’s range at first base will allow the Mariners to let Jose Lopez shade more toward the middle at second base.
For all that, if the season began today, the team would be hugely dependent upon the bat – not just the clubhouse presence – of Ken GriffeyJr.
Jack Zduriencik may have another move or two coming. One thing Zduriencik has proven in 14 1/2 months on the job is he’s never idle. But as it stands today, Junior is the left-handed DH.
That means he’s going to wind up somewhere in the heart of the Seattle lineup again, in the mix of a 3-4-5 order that’s likely to mix and match Bradley, Lopez and Griffey.
And that means, if the Mariners are going to take advantage of Ichiro and Figgins atop their lineup, Griffey can’t hit .214 again – not if Seattle is going to improve upon that 85-win season.
This isn’t about home runs. Junior hit 19 of those in 387 at-bat last season, and if he hits 19 more this season the team can live with it happily. What the Mariners can’t have is a primary DH who bats .214 in the heart of the order – or one who hits .174 on the road.
Griffey, now 40, doesn’t have to hit his career average (.285) for the Mariners to win. And until last season, he’d never batted lower than .249 in a year.
The good news? Junior didn’t re-sign in Seattle just to come back and keep his teammates spirits high. That comes naturally to him, the product of growing up in major league clubhouses with that Junior personality.
Griffey wants the team to succeed in 2010 and knows as well as anyone that for it to happen, he’ll have to produce. That means singles to keep innings and rallies alive, and RBI when there’s a runner at third base and two out – not just when there are less than two outs.
It means more work to keep that 40-year-old body fresh, and acceptance that hitting in the heart of the order – or never being pinch-hit for against lefties late in the game – are not guarantees, any longer.
A year ago, Griffey on occasion was penciled in to bat sixth in the lineup, and didn’t care for it. This season, manager Don Wakamatsu may be forced do that again.
Junior, of course, controls all that. If he hits, he’s in the 3-4-5 rotation – and the Mariners have their strongest lineup. If he doesn’t, they’re a team that’s not going to out-score anyone in the American League West.
In that scenario, they’re likely to finish third again.
Now, a few links:
- Outfielder Carlos Beltran underwent arthroscopic knee surgery to correct a ‘worsening situation’ and will miss opening day for the Mets. Far more intriguing: He apparently did so without the permission of the team.
- Free agent Ben Sheets, who didn’t pitch in 2009, will hold a throwing session next week in Louisiana, where as many as six teams may show up to watch. Will the Mariners be among them? They won’t say.
- In Cleveland, the Indians are crossing their fingers and naming Jake Westbrook as their likely opening day starter. That’s because Westbrook hasn’t pitched in two years and is coming off Tommy John surgery.
- After walking away from a two-year, $17 million deal with San Francisco, Adam LaRoche has apparently signed a one-year contract with Arizona for about $4 million. Oops.
- Fox Sports is reporting the Mariners have interest in Fernando Tatis, a utility player who can play most anywhere and batted .282 in 125 games last season.
- A Giants fan, you say? Here’s the 2010 opening day lineup - at least one-through-five – with Aubrey Huff hitting cleanup.
I feel like this entry implies that the M’s haven’t improved their offense. They have, unquestionably. To say that they are relying more heavily on Griffey this year than last year is to not understand what’s happened this year.
Even if they didn’t make another move, Griffey is unlikely to get as many at-bats as he did last year. He’d be the left-handed DH platoon, at most. In fact, in all likelihood, if the season started today, Bradley would be the DH and Saunders the LF.
The 2009 roster relied far more heavily on Griffey than this year’s team will. Not even close. Even as it stands today.
I love how losing one 30-HR player makes everyone believe the offense is weaker. It’s not. It’s better, significantly.
People are so blinded by home runs, it’s hilarious.
“If he doesn’t, they’re a team that’s not going to out-score anyone in the American League West.”
What does that even mean? If the Mariners prevent runs like expected, they will outscore the American League West. They may not score a ton of runs, but all they have to do is score more than their opponent. They may only score 750 runs, but if they give up 650, they’ve “out-scored” their opponent, and could very well win the division that way.
Sometimes logic is thrown out the window because a team doesn’t fit into the pre-defined box of what a good team is supposed to look like.
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This is probably a good time to mention, again, that the first three hitters in the line-up are All-Star hitters. Ichiro, Figgins, and Bradley represent one of the best 1-2-3 combinations in the league. I don’t think that trio is getting enough credit yet. Do we realize how good they are?
With those players at the top of the line-up, the Mariners will fall into runs, no matter how inept the 4 and 5 hitters are. They’ll score runs on accident.
There may not be a ton of homers, but with the dynamic pitching and defense, there will be enough runs to win.
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Well put 44
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pwhitt – the reason for the post is that junior, despite early expectations, now stands as the primary left-handed DH, and there’s no reason to think he won’t get as many or more at-bats as last year, when he filled the same role.
the top of the order will get on, but if junior doesn’t produce, scoring runs by accident won’t be any easier than it was last season – when the entire known world out-scored the mariners.
if the season opened today, wakamatsu said, junior would be the dh, bradley the lf. if kenny doesn’t hit more than .214, there’s going to be a huge hole in the heart of the lineup.
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I have faith that Jr is working out and taking a lot of off seas batting practice. I think more than anybody, Jr wants this year to be a success. I am sure he would like to go out on top. I feel the magic-a-brewing!!
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I agree with Larry’s concern. While it would be the feel good story of the year if JR somehow hit even .250 / 25 hr, it likely won’t happen.
We really do need a slugger of 2. Shame we let Texas get Guerrero.
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Everyone seems to focus on Juniors HRs and BA; take a look at his OBP last year, at .324 it was better than Lopez at .303 and Beltre at .304 and his 14% walk rate means he doesn’t even have to hit the ball to help the team, Lopez was 3.8% and Beltre was 4.1%. The statement “Good eye kid” means something. Plus he know’s he’s going to have a realistic and probably final chance to go to the payoffs and he will be motivated.
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maqman,
I somewhat agree, but walks don’t drive in runs.
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the 2010 mariners are going to win the American League west division and go to their first world series appearence and any team that gets in their way will be run over. 2010 will be the year of the mariners better get used to it.
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Brad Nelson can also be a part time off the bench DH. At 6’2 250 that’s a pretty big dude. who has some pop in his bat.
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“Driving in runs” is such a weird phrase. It’s attributed to sluggers. But it results naturally from any player getting a hit or walking when there are people on base. If there are people on base, a hit (and sometimes a walk), will result in a run or more. Regardless of the size of the hit.
Seriously, all the players do it. A home run certainly creates more runs. But each run is equal in value to the others. As long as they come in, who cares?
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Also, I don’t feel like this is a team who will hit less home runs than last year. It’ll probably be about the same, assuming health and a full season of playing time for the Bradley, Kotchman, etc.
Looking only at players with 10 or more…
2009 — Ichiro 11, Gutierrez 18, Lopez 25, Branyan 31, Griffey 19 = 104
2010 — Ichiro 10, Gutierrez 20, Lopez 25, Bradley 25, Kotchman 15 = 95
That’s taking Griffey out of the equation entirely, and being conservative with Gutierrez. He (25?) and Kotchman (20?) could very well do better than that.
And it’s leaving out the fact that the GM still likely has a couple of things up his sleeve. This roster will look different (possibly significantly) before Opening Day.
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pwhit – we agree on driving in runs. my point is that junior must hit better than .214, not that he must hit more home runs.
as for your home run chart, you may be expecting more from bradley than he can deliver. he’s never hit 25 home runs in a season, not even in hitter-friendly texas.
bottom line remains: if junior is hitting fourth, he’s got to hit better than he did a year ago or this team will struggle offensively.
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Extrapolated runs.
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I think we are in agreement, Larry. At least on the point that this will not be a high-scoring team. They won’t score a ton of runs. Especially if they have if they have to rely on Griffey.
I just disagree with the idea that seems to be circulating that the offense is worse than last year. They’ll score more than they did last year, if not be a ton.
And coupled with the defense and pitching, that offense will be enough to remain competitive.
Also, not long after our discussion here, Graham at Lookout Landing discussed the very same topic: http://bit.ly/4XxF9P
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I have several friends in other cities who believe the M’s will win the west in 2010 mostly based on Felix & Lee. Guess we’ll see. If the season started today, I’d predict a repeat of 3rd. Of course i hope I’m wrong!
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If the season starts today, the Angels, Rangers, and M’s are all 85-90 win teams, and the A’s are probably right around 75 — they are not a bad team.
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I’m glad everyone is getting excited about the season. We certainly can’t look at this team, with two bonafide #1 starters, two all-star lead off type players, a solid closer and a great front office and call them weak. Some of the rationale posted on here is confusing, but hey, spring training is when M’s fans can dream. What is it, about a month before pitchers and catchers report?
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