The recent story about the University of Washington poll conducted Oct. 1-16 says Referendum 74 is supported by 56 percent of registered voters, and 54 percent of likely voters. The story also says that because some people lied on the poll, R-74 is probably supported by only 53 percent.
First, the gay marriage campaign to approve R-74 had TV ads on the air the entire time the poll was being taken, and for many weeks before that. The campaign to reject R-74 had TV ads on the air for only the last few days of the time the poll was taken.
Second, it’s impossible to know how many people lied to the pollsters because the poll relies on asking people if they lied!
Third, even if the approve R-74” side has 53 percent, the trend is moving in the direction of rejecting same-sex marriage. Polls around the country consistently overstate the public’s support for same-sex marriage, and such polls have never translated into success at the ballot box. Polls almost always forecast that supporters of traditional marriage will fare worse than they actually do on Election Day.
Of the 32 states where the people have voted on the definition of marriage, all 32 have voted to preserve marriage as the union of one man and one woman. As in all of those past elections, when people mark their ballots here in Washington, they too will vote to preserve the traditional definition of marriage. The only poll that really counts is on Election Day.
(White is communications director for Preserve Marriage Washington.)