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Forecast Council releases predictions for third quarter

Post by News Tribune Staff on Sep. 2, 2008 at 4:36 pm with No Comments »
September 2, 2008 4:36 pm

A new forecast for the state’s economy doesn’t include much good news. But the bad news isn’t earth-shattering either.

The marginal impact of the stimulus package will wear off as consumer spending will slow, according to the September economic forecast from the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

The predictions follow the same pattern as previous reports, senior economic forecaster Eric Swenson said.

The report’s conclusions on the second quarter included:

  • Second quarter GDP growth came in at 1.9 percent.

  • Foreign trade added 2.4 percent to GDP growth, fueled by a 9.2 percent jump in exports.

  • Payroll employment fell 0.6 percent.

  • The Consumer Price Index rose 5 percent.

  • Inflation jumped 28.1 percent.

  • The mortgage rate increased 9.09 percent.

  • The biggest changes predicted are housing permits, which will fall 42.5 percent. Also, construction employment is down by 4.2 percent and the drop will continue.

    Other predictions include:

  • Real personal income, not connected to the software industry, will fall 3.3 percent.

  • Manufacturing employment will rise by 0.3 percent.

  • Wage and salary employment will also see a slight rise, 0.2 percent.

  • The Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors will review the forecast on Friday. The full report is available here.

    Economic Development
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